# Will the tariff rate on Canada imports be between 30% and 39.99% on Jul 1, 2026

> Between 10% and 19.99% leads at 88%, runner-up 54% across 2 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/tariffratecan
Updated: 2026-06-26T14:20:50.427Z
Category: economy · Topic: recession
Status: active
Closes: 2026-07-01

## Headline

- Leader: Between 10% and 19.99% at 88%
- Runner-up: Between 50% and 60% at 54%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $6

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Between 10% and 19.99% | 88¢ | ±0 | $6 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-tariff-rate-on-canada-imports-be-between-kalshi-kxtariffratecan-26jul01-14 |
| Between 50% and 60% | 54¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-tariff-rate-on-canada-imports-be-between-kalshi-kxtariffratecan-26jul01-55 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-28 | 61 |
| 2026-06-12 | 71 |
| 2026-06-18 | 84 |
| 2026-06-25 | 87 |

_22 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-21 · Between 10% and 19.99% +3pp 84→87¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that Canadian import tariffs will settle in the 30-40% range by July 1, 2026. The 59% probability for the 10-20% bracket (the leading outcome) suggests markets view lower tariff rates as more likely than mid-range ones, with only 13% assigned to rates of 40% or higher. The current level reflects uncertainty about administration trade policy direction and negotiation outcomes with Canada. The key driver is ongoing trade negotiations and any policy announcements between now and late June. Resolution occurs automatically on July 1 when actual tariff rates are published by U.S. trade authorities. Market pricing across related contracts shows traders expect lower tariff bands to be more probable across multiple trading partners, suggesting a baseline assumption of moderation rather than extreme escalation.

### Key factors

- The leading market price of 59% is assigned to 10-20% tariffs on Canadian imports, not the 30-40% bracket in this question
- Related contracts show 65-75% market probability for 10-20% tariffs on China, EU, and India imports, indicating broad expectation of lower-range outcomes
- Tariff rates will be determined by official U.S. government action and published on or before July 1, 2026—no discretion or ambiguity in resolution
- Only $492-$241 in 24-hour volume on similar EU and China contracts suggests relatively thin market liquidity and potentially volatile repricing
- The 13% probability assigned to tariffs above 40% indicates markets view extreme escalation as unlikely despite historical trade policy volatility

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/tariffratecan
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=tariffratecan
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/recession

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