# Will the tariff rate on the European Union imports be between 20% and 29.99% on Jul 1, 2026

> Between 10% and 19.99% leads at 69%, runner-up 7% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 6 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/tariffrateeu
Updated: 2026-05-03T17:20:49.640Z
Category: economy · Topic: recession
Status: active
Closes: 2026-07-01

## Headline

- Leader: Between 10% and 19.99% at 69%
- Runner-up: Below 10% at 7%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $76

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Between 10% and 19.99% | 69¢ | +3pp | $70 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-tariff-rate-on-the-european-union-imports-kalshi-kxtariffrateeu-26jul01-14 |
| Below 10% | 7¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-tariff-rate-on-the-european-union-imports-kalshi-kxtariffrateeu-26jul01-5 |
| Between 20% and 29.99% | 6¢ | −1pp | $6 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-tariff-rate-on-the-european-union-imports-kalshi-kxtariffrateeu-26jul01-24 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Between 10% and 19.99% | Below 10% | Between 20% and 29.99% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | 70 | 9 | — |
| 2026-04-16 | 71 | — | 2 |
| 2026-04-19 | 72 | — | — |
| 2026-04-22 | 70 | 9 | 3 |
| 2026-04-27 | — | 8 | — |
| 2026-04-29 | — | 9 | 2 |
| 2026-05-01 | 66 | 8 | 7 |
| 2026-05-02 | — | 7 | 6 |
| 2026-05-03 | 69 | — | — |

_18 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-01 · Between 10% and 19.99% −5pp 71→66¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-01 · Between 20% and 29.99% +5pp 2→7¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · Between 10% and 19.99% +3pp 66→69¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-01 · Below 10% −3pp 11→8¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This contract predicts a 68% probability that U.S. tariffs on European Union imports will fall between 20% and 29.99% on July 1, 2026. The high probability reflects market expectations that tariff rates will land in this middle band rather than lower or higher levels. The current reading is influenced by ongoing trade negotiations between the U.S. and EU, recent tariff announcements, and the administration's stated trade policy direction. The primary driver pushing probability up would be official signals or legislative action pointing toward this specific rate range; factors pulling it down would include statements suggesting rates will move substantially higher or lower. The key resolution event is July 1, 2026, when official tariff schedules take effect. Market participants are pricing in a moderate tariff scenario, though significant uncertainty remains about final negotiated rates and any last-minute policy changes before the deadline.

### Key factors

- Official U.S. tariff announcements or executive orders issued between now and June 30, 2026 that specify rate levels for EU imports
- Completion status and outcomes of ongoing U.S.-EU trade negotiations, particularly any binding agreements on tariff schedules
- Historical precedent: whether the administration has previously implemented tariffs in the 20-29.99% range versus higher or lower brackets
- Congressional action or legislative proposals that could override or modify executive tariff decisions
- Market concentration in this outcome: the 68% leader price suggests strong consensus, but runner-up at 7% indicates meaningful disagreement about alternative rate bands

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/tariffrateeu
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=tariffrateeu
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/recession

## License

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