# Will the tariff rate on China imports be between 10% and 19.99% on Jul 1, 2026

> Between 10% and 19.99% leads at 82%, runner-up 9% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 7 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/tariffrateprc
Updated: 2026-06-08T09:20:07.264Z
Category: economy · Topic: recession
Status: active
Closes: 2026-07-01

## Headline

- Leader: Between 10% and 19.99% at 82%
- Runner-up: Below 10% at 9%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $13

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Between 10% and 19.99% | 82¢ | −1pp | $13 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-tariff-rate-on-china-imports-be-between-1-kalshi-kxtariffrateprc-26jul01-14 |
| Below 10% | 9¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-tariff-rate-on-china-imports-be-below-10-kalshi-kxtariffrateprc-26jul01-5 |
| Between 30% and 39.99% | 3¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-tariff-rate-on-china-imports-be-between-3-kalshi-kxtariffrateprc-26jul01-34 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Between 10% and 19.99% | Below 10% | Between 30% and 39.99% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | — | 3 | 8 |
| 2026-05-10 | 64 | — | 8 |
| 2026-05-25 | 53 | 22 | 3 |
| 2026-05-30 | 66 | 22 | — |
| 2026-06-01 | 71 | — | 3 |
| 2026-06-07 | — | 10 | — |
| 2026-06-08 | 82 | — | — |

_30 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-03 · Below 10% −9pp 22→13¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-03 · Between 10% and 19.99% +6pp 71→77¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-04 · Between 10% and 19.99% +4pp 77→81¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-04 · Below 10% −3pp 13→10¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability indicates that markets currently assess a two-in-three chance that U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports will settle between 10% and 19.99% by July 1, 2026. The 64% price for the 10-19.99% band reflects expectations about ongoing trade negotiations and policy decisions. The probability level suggests meaningful uncertainty: markets are pricing in substantial probability for tariff rates outside this range—either lower (under 10%) or higher (20% or above). The main drivers include statements from U.S. trade officials regarding negotiation outcomes, actual tariff announcements or changes between now and early July, and broader trade relationship developments. The critical resolution point is the actual tariff rate announced or confirmed by July 1, 2026. Market participants are weighing recent policy signals against the possibility of significant changes in either direction during the next two months.

### Key factors

- Current effective tariff rates on Chinese imports and recent policy announcements from U.S. trade officials
- Public statements or proposals regarding tariff rate targets from government leadership between May and July 2026
- Any interim tariff changes or negotiations announced before the July 1 measurement date
- Market pricing of the three competing outcomes (below 10%, within 10-19.99%, and 20% or above) based on available information
- Geopolitical developments or trade dispute escalations that could trigger tariff policy shifts in either direction

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/tariffrateprc
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=tariffrateprc
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/recession

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