# Is Taylor Swift pregnant?

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 29% across 11 contracts — refreshed 30 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/taylor-swift-pregnant
Updated: 2026-06-08T07:20:11.797Z
Category: entertainment
Status: active
Closes: 2027-02-28

## Headline

- Probability: 29% (liquidity-weighted across 11 contracts)
- Cross-venue: Kalshi 26% / Polymarket 37% — 11pp spread
- 24h volume: $34K

## Bound contracts (11)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before 2027 | 87¢ | +4pp | $34K | kalshi | /markets/will-taylor-swift-and-travis-kelce-be-married-in-2-kalshi-kxmarriageswiftkelce-26 |
| Taylor Swift | 13¢ | −1pp | $378 | kalshi | /markets/will-taylor-swift-be-the-1-most-streamed-artist-on-kalshi-kxtopartistusa-26-tay |
| Taylor Swift | 6¢ | −1pp | $34 | kalshi | /markets/artist-with-the-most-monthly-spotify-listeners-at-kalshi-kxtopmonthly-26aug-tay |
| Will Taylor Swift release "Taylor Swift (Taylor's Version)" in 2026? | 74¢ | +2pp | $30 | polymarket | /markets/will-taylor-swift-release-taylor-swift-taylors-ver-polymarket-0xc5c6b04f17dd3844b3abc609d0a9bcbf2f0fc377122ff73244695cf6966cca03 |
| Taylor Swift | 48¢ | −1pp | $5 | kalshi | /markets/will-taylor-swift-release-a-new-album-in-2026-tayl-kalshi-kxalbumrelease-26-tay |
| December 31, 2026 | 32¢ | ±0 | $3 | polymarket | /markets/taylor-swift-pregnant-in-2025-december-31-2026-polymarket-0x0803b42cec5723f301f77f3ea818fcb393eb58b9694096cab2d4f8b81b4a2bdf |
| Taylor Swift | 3¢ | −1pp | $1 | kalshi | /markets/will-taylor-swift-be-time-person-of-the-year-in-20-kalshi-kxtime-26-ts |
| Taylor Swift | 4¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/top-spotify-artist-2026-taylor-swift-polymarket-0x0afa82ff8cb4dcf8c7a248ccaf438597619d3a6a4e4463adb109e1a1034d6e10 |
| Taylor Swift | 27¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-taylor-swift-be-on-the-cover-of-rolling-stone-kalshi-kxrollingstonecover-27-tay |
| Taylor Swift | 18¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-taylor-swift-be-1-on-the-ifpis-biggest-sellin-kalshi-kxranklistifpiartist-27feb28-tay |
| Taylor Swift | 3¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-taylor-swift-be-the-2-rank-on-googles-year-in-kalshi-kxranklistgooglesearch2-26dec-tay |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 15 |
| 2026-05-25 | 29 |
| 2026-06-01 | 37 |
| 2026-06-08 | 46 |

_31 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-02 · Will Taylor Swift release "Taylor Swift (Taylor's Version)" in 2026? +33pp 42→75¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-01 · Before 2027 −9pp 90→81¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-03 · Taylor Swift +6pp 4→10¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-04 · Will Taylor Swift release "Taylor Swift (Taylor's Version)" in 2026? −6pp 75→69¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-01 · December 31, 2026 +6pp 27→33¢ · polymarket

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/taylor-swift-pregnant
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=taylor-swift-pregnant

## License

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