# Will Danielle Haim be a Bridesmaid for the wedding of Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 34% across 17 contracts — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/taylorswiftwedding
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:05:42.889Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2030-01-01

## Headline

- Probability: 34% (liquidity-weighted across 17 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (17 contracts)
- 24h volume: $121

## Bound contracts (17)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cara Delevingne | 17¢ | +3pp | $41 | kalshi | /markets/will-cara-delevingne-be-a-bridesmaid-for-the-weddi-kalshi-kxtaylorswiftwedding-30jan01-car |
| Gigi Hadid | 57¢ | ±0 | $22 | kalshi | /markets/will-gigi-hadid-be-a-bridesmaid-for-the-wedding-of-kalshi-kxtaylorswiftwedding-30jan01-gig |
| Abigail Anderson (Berard) | 64¢ | +7pp | $15 | kalshi | /markets/will-abigail-anderson-berard-be-a-bridesmaid-for-t-kalshi-kxtaylorswiftwedding-30jan01-abi |
| Este Haim | 59¢ | −9pp | $13 | kalshi | /markets/will-este-haim-be-a-bridesmaid-for-the-wedding-of-kalshi-kxtaylorswiftwedding-30jan01-est |
| Zoë Kravitz | 48¢ | −13pp | $11 | kalshi | /markets/will-zo-kravitz-be-a-bridesmaid-for-the-wedding-of-kalshi-kxtaylorswiftwedding-30jan01-zoe |
| Selena Gomez | 67¢ | +7pp | $7 | kalshi | /markets/will-selena-gomez-be-a-bridesmaid-for-the-wedding-kalshi-kxtaylorswiftwedding-30jan01-sel |
| Kylie Kelce | 64¢ | +1pp | $6 | kalshi | /markets/will-kylie-kelce-be-a-bridesmaid-for-the-wedding-o-kalshi-kxtaylorswiftwedding-30jan01-kyl |
| Danielle Haim | 19¢ | +1pp | $5 | kalshi | /markets/will-danielle-haim-be-a-bridesmaid-for-the-wedding-kalshi-kxtaylorswiftwedding-30jan01-dan |
| Ice Spice | 3¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ice-spice-be-a-bridesmaid-for-the-wedding-of-kalshi-kxtaylorswiftwedding-30jan01-ice |
| Blake Lively | 9¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-blake-lively-be-a-bridesmaid-for-the-wedding-kalshi-kxtaylorswiftwedding-30jan01-bla |
| Alana Haim | 20¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-alana-haim-be-a-bridesmaid-for-the-wedding-of-kalshi-kxtaylorswiftwedding-30jan01-ala |
| Lana Del Rey | 14¢ | +5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-lana-del-rey-be-a-bridesmaid-for-the-wedding-kalshi-kxtaylorswiftwedding-30jan01-lan |
| Sophie Turner | 19¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-sophie-turner-be-a-bridesmaid-for-the-wedding-kalshi-kxtaylorswiftwedding-30jan01-sop |
| Brittany Mahomes | 17¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-brittany-mahomes-be-a-bridesmaid-for-the-wedd-kalshi-kxtaylorswiftwedding-30jan01-bri |
| Ashley Avignone | 63¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ashley-avignone-be-a-bridesmaid-for-the-weddi-kalshi-kxtaylorswiftwedding-30jan01-ash |
| Sabrina Carpenter | 25¢ | −4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-sabrina-carpenter-be-a-bridesmaid-for-the-wed-kalshi-kxtaylorswiftwedding-30jan01-sab |
| Emma Stone | 17¢ | −8pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-emma-stone-be-a-bridesmaid-for-the-wedding-of-kalshi-kxtaylorswiftwedding-30jan01-emm |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 28 |
| 2026-04-25 | 37 |
| 2026-05-02 | 38 |
| 2026-05-09 | 33 |

_29 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-02 · Abigail Anderson (Berard) −13pp 69→56¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-08 · Zoë Kravitz −13pp 53→40¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · Selena Gomez −10pp 66→56¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-08 · Este Haim −9pp 60→51¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · Kylie Kelce −8pp 68→60¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This represents the market's assessment that Danielle Haim will be included in Taylor Swift's wedding party if she marries Travis Kelce. At 34%, the probability reflects moderate uncertainty about whether this specific friendship would result in a bridesmaid role. The current level appears influenced by Swift's well-documented close friendships and her history of involving members of her inner circle in major life events, weighed against the large number of potential candidates for bridesmaid positions. The main uncertainty driver is whether a Travis Kelce-Taylor Swift wedding occurs at all, followed by which friends Swift would select if it does. Resolution will depend on either an official wedding announcement and guest list disclosure, or sufficient time passing to make the event unlikely.

### Key factors

- Danielle Haim's documented friendship history with Taylor Swift and prior appearances at major life events
- The total number of candidates competing for bridesmaid positions versus available slots
- Public statements or social media activity indicating closeness between Swift and Haim in 2025-2026
- Whether Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift maintain their relationship or announce an engagement
- Market probability of a Taylor Swift-Travis Kelce wedding occurring, which appears to be a precondition for this outcome

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

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