# Will Brittany Mahomes attend Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce's Wedding

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 58% across 20 contracts — refreshed 30 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/taylorswiftweddingattend
Updated: 2026-06-26T03:20:49.525Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2028-12-31

## Headline

- Probability: 58% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $12K

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benny Blanco | 85¢ | ±0 | $4K | kalshi | /markets/will-benny-blanco-attend-taylor-swift-and-travis-k-kalshi-kxtaylorswiftweddingattend-28dec-ben |
| Blake Lively | 19¢ | −1pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-blake-lively-attend-taylor-swift-and-travis-k-kalshi-kxtaylorswiftweddingattend-28dec31-bla |
| Brittany Mahomes | 89¢ | ±0 | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-brittany-mahomes-attend-taylor-swift-and-trav-kalshi-kxtaylorswiftweddingattend-28dec31-bri |
| Sabrina Carpenter | 76¢ | +6pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-sabrina-carpenter-attend-taylor-swift-and-tra-kalshi-kxtaylorswiftweddingattend-28dec31-sab |
| Danielle Haim | 77¢ | −1pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-danielle-haim-attend-taylor-swift-and-travis-kalshi-kxtaylorswiftweddingattend-28dec31-dan |
| Florence Welch | 22¢ | −6pp | $740 | kalshi | /markets/wil-florence-welchl-attend-taylor-swift-and-travis-kalshi-kxtaylorswiftweddingattend-28dec-flo |
| Phoebe Bridgers | 57¢ | ±0 | $606 | kalshi | /markets/will-phoebe-bridgers-attend-taylor-swift-and-travi-kalshi-kxtaylorswiftweddingattend-28dec31-pho |
| Katy Perry | 11¢ | ±0 | $449 | kalshi | /markets/will-katy-perry-attend-taylor-swift-and-travis-kel-kalshi-kxtaylorswiftweddingattend-28dec-kat |
| Justin Trudeau | 12¢ | +1pp | $321 | kalshi | /markets/will-justin-trudeau-attend-taylor-swift-and-travis-kalshi-kxtaylorswiftweddingattend-28dec-jus |
| Lana Del Rey | 63¢ | +1pp | $175 | kalshi | /markets/will-lana-del-rey-attend-taylor-swift-and-travis-k-kalshi-kxtaylorswiftweddingattend-28dec31-lan |
| Jack Antonoff | 86¢ | −4pp | $145 | kalshi | /markets/will-jack-antonoff-attend-taylor-swift-and-travis-kalshi-kxtaylorswiftweddingattend-28dec31-jac |
| Max Martin | 63¢ | +12pp | $109 | kalshi | /markets/will-max-martin-attend-taylor-swift-and-travis-kel-kalshi-kxtaylorswiftweddingattend-28dec31-max |
| Patrick Mahomes | 91¢ | +2pp | $78 | kalshi | /markets/will-patrick-mahomes-attend-taylor-swift-and-travi-kalshi-kxtaylorswiftweddingattend-28dec31-pat |
| Selena Gomez | 89¢ | +1pp | $70 | kalshi | /markets/will-selena-gomez-attend-taylor-swift-and-travis-k-kalshi-kxtaylorswiftweddingattend-28dec31-sel |
| Alana Haim | 88¢ | +2pp | $33 | kalshi | /markets/will-alana-haim-attend-taylor-swift-and-travis-kel-kalshi-kxtaylorswiftweddingattend-28dec31-ala |
| Jared Goff | 9¢ | +2pp | $28 | kalshi | /markets/will-jared-goff-attend-taylor-swift-and-travis-kel-kalshi-kxtaylorswiftweddingattend-28dec31-jar |
| Este Haim | 89¢ | +1pp | $26 | kalshi | /markets/will-este-haim-attend-taylor-swift-and-travis-kelc-kalshi-kxtaylorswiftweddingattend-28dec31-est |
| Harry Styles | 31¢ | +1pp | $18 | kalshi | /markets/will-harry-styles-attend-taylor-swift-and-travis-k-kalshi-kxtaylorswiftweddingattend-28dec-har |
| Gracie Abrams | 75¢ | −2pp | $1 | kalshi | /markets/will-gracie-abrams-attend-taylor-swift-and-travis-kalshi-kxtaylorswiftweddingattend-28dec31-gra |
| Lorde | 23¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-lorde-attend-taylor-swift-and-travis-kelces-w-kalshi-kxtaylorswiftweddingattend-28dec-lor |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | 68 |
| 2026-06-12 | 63 |
| 2026-06-19 | 65 |
| 2026-06-25 | 37 |

_30 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-22 · Florence Welch +23pp 8→31¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-21 · Lana Del Rey −18pp 62→44¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-20 · Max Martin −17pp 66→49¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-20 · Florence Welch −15pp 37→22¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-21 · Florence Welch −14pp 22→8¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This represents the estimated likelihood that Brittany Mahomes, wife of Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes, will attend a wedding between Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce. The 65% probability reflects moderate confidence in her attendance, likely driven by the close relationship between the Mahomes and Kelce families within the NFL, as well as Swift and Kelce's public connection. The primary factors influencing this estimate are social ties within the sports-celebrity circle and typical wedding guest patterns for high-profile athletes' families. The main catalyst for resolving this uncertainty would be either an official wedding announcement with a guest list, media confirmation of attendance plans, or the wedding date itself occurring. Until then, probabilities remain anchored to observable relationship indicators and historical precedent for similar high-profile events.

### Key factors

- Patrick Mahomes' probability of attendance markets at 80-91% across platforms, suggesting the market expects him to attend and potentially bring family members
- Brittany Mahomes maintains active social media presence and regularly attends NFL events and celebrity functions alongside her husband
- Historical precedent: high-profile athlete spouses typically attend weddings of teammates' family members, particularly when social circles overlap
- No official wedding announcement, date, or guest list has been publicly confirmed as of May 2026
- Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift's relationship status and public commitment level would directly influence family inclusion in wedding planning

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/taylorswiftweddingattend
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=taylorswiftweddingattend

## License

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