# Will the average U.S. price of a Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme for July 2026 be at least $6.69

> At least $6.65 leads at 90%, runner-up 76% across 8 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 10 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/tbcrunchwrap
Updated: 2026-07-13T03:20:50.599Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-08-02

## Headline

- Leader: At least $6.65 at 90%
- Runner-up: At least $6.66 at 76%
- Outcomes: 8 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (8 contracts)
- 24h volume: $1K

## Bound contracts (8)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least $6.65 | 90¢ | +1pp | $10 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-average-us-price-of-a-taco-bell-crunchwra-kalshi-kxtbcrunchwrap-26aug02-t6.65 |
| At least $6.66 | 76¢ | +11pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-average-us-price-of-a-taco-bell-crunchwra-kalshi-kxtbcrunchwrap-26aug02-t6.66 |
| At least $6.67 | 66¢ | +3pp | $15 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-average-us-price-of-a-taco-bell-crunchwra-kalshi-kxtbcrunchwrap-26aug02-t6.67 |
| At least $6.68 | 60¢ | +1pp | $253 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-average-us-price-of-a-taco-bell-crunchwra-kalshi-kxtbcrunchwrap-26aug02-t6.68 |
| At least $6.69 | 45¢ | +1pp | $513 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-average-us-price-of-a-taco-bell-crunchwra-kalshi-kxtbcrunchwrap-26aug02-t6.69 |
| At least $6.70 | 27¢ | — | $22 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-average-us-price-of-a-taco-bell-crunchwra-kalshi-kxtbcrunchwrap-26aug02-t6.70 |
| At least $6.71 | 14¢ | — | $38 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-average-us-price-of-a-taco-bell-crunchwra-kalshi-kxtbcrunchwrap-26aug02-t6.71 |
| At least $6.72 | 7¢ | +1pp | $414 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-average-us-price-of-a-taco-bell-crunchwra-kalshi-kxtbcrunchwrap-26aug02-t6.72 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | At least $6.65 | At least $6.66 | At least $6.67 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-07 | 78 | 66 | 45 |
| 2026-07-08 | 90 | — | 63 |
| 2026-07-09 | 91 | 77 | 66 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-07-08 · At least $6.67 +18pp 45→63¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-08 · At least $6.65 +12pp 78→90¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-09 · At least $6.66 +11pp 66→77¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-09 · At least $6.69 +10pp 31→41¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-08 · At least $6.68 +9pp 46→55¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This contract estimates an 88% probability that the Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme will average at least $6.65 across U.S. locations during July 2026. The high probability reflects ongoing menu price inflation, though the specific threshold remains uncertain given regional pricing variations and Taco Bell's promotional strategies. Contract prices decline sharply at higher price points ($6.69, $6.72), suggesting meaningful disagreement about whether prices will reach those levels. The resolution depends on Taco Bell publishing or markets obtaining verified average pricing data for July 2026. Historical menu price increases, franchise-level variation, and any mid-month promotional discounting would all influence the final outcome. The current gap between the $6.65 and $6.69 contracts (89¢ vs. 43¢) indicates traders see roughly a 46% chance of exceeding $6.69 specifically.

### Key factors

- Taco Bell's historical price trajectory: the item has risen from approximately $5.50 in early 2024 to current estimates near $6.65, representing roughly 6% annual inflation
- Regional pricing variation: franchise-level control and local market competition create significant price dispersion across U.S. locations that affects national averages
- Promotional activity timing: if Taco Bell runs major discounts or value menu bundling during July 2026, it could suppress the monthly average below higher thresholds
- Data source and methodology: resolution requires verified pricing data; different sources (QSR tracking, Taco Bell internal data, third-party surveys) may produce conflicting averages
- Competitive pricing pressure: fast-casual competitors' pricing moves and consumer sensitivity to menu price increases could influence Taco Bell's pricing decisions

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/tbcrunchwrap
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=tbcrunchwrap

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.