# Will Carolina and Minnesota be the matchup in the 2026 Pro Hockey Championship Series

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 11% across 9 contracts — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/teamsinsc
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:40.299Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-05

## Headline

- Probability: 11% (liquidity-weighted across 9 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (9 contracts)
- 24h volume: $17K

## Bound contracts (9)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carolina and Colorado | 50¢ | +1pp | $8K | kalshi | /markets/will-carolina-and-colorado-be-the-matchup-in-the-2-kalshi-kxteamsinsc-26-carcol |
| Carolina and Minnesota | 3¢ | −1pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-carolina-and-minnesota-be-the-matchup-in-the-kalshi-kxteamsinsc-26-carmin |
| Montreal and Colorado | 7¢ | +4pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-montreal-and-colorado-be-the-matchup-in-the-2-kalshi-kxteamsinsc-26-mtlcol |
| Carolina and Vegas | 9¢ | −5pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-carolina-and-vegas-be-the-matchup-in-the-2026-kalshi-kxteamsinsc-26-carvgk |
| Carolina and Anaheim | 3¢ | +1pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-carolina-and-anaheim-be-the-matchup-in-the-20-kalshi-kxteamsinsc-26-carana |
| Buffalo and Colorado | 11¢ | +2pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-buffalo-and-colorado-be-the-matchup-in-the-20-kalshi-kxteamsinsc-26-bufcol |
| Buffalo and Vegas | 5¢ | ±0 | $252 | kalshi | /markets/will-buffalo-and-vegas-be-the-matchup-in-the-2026-kalshi-kxteamsinsc-26-bufvgk |
| Montreal and Minnesota | 3¢ | −2pp | $125 | kalshi | /markets/will-montreal-and-minnesota-be-the-matchup-in-the-kalshi-kxteamsinsc-26-mtlmin |
| Carolina and Utah | 4¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-carolina-and-utah-be-the-matchup-in-the-2026-kalshi-kxteamsinsc-26-caruta |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 13 |
| 2026-04-25 | 5 |
| 2026-05-02 | 9 |
| 2026-05-08 | 17 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Carolina and Colorado +16pp 26→42¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · Carolina and Anaheim +6pp 3→9¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-07 · Carolina and Anaheim −6pp 9→3¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-07 · Carolina and Vegas −5pp 13→8¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-07 · Buffalo and Colorado +5pp 11→16¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market reflects a 9% probability that the Carolina Hurricanes and Minnesota Wild will face each other in the 2026 Stanley Cup Finals. The prediction suggests both teams would need to win their respective conference championships, an outcome markets currently view as unlikely. The probability is influenced by each team's current roster strength, playoff seeding position, and recent performance trends. The main uncertainty will be resolved through the 2025-26 NHL season and subsequent playoffs, with the Stanley Cup Finals scheduled for June 2026. Key factors include each team's regular-season performance through the spring, playoff matchup circumstances that determine which teams advance from each conference, and any significant trades or roster changes during the season.

### Key factors

- Carolina's current playoff positioning and win-loss trajectory relative to other Eastern Conference contenders
- Minnesota's competitive standing in the Western Conference and recent performance consistency
- Injury status and roster health for both teams heading into the playoff stretch
- Head-to-head strength of schedule remaining in the 2025-26 regular season for each club
- Playoff bracket structure and seeding outcomes that determine which opponents each team faces in earlier rounds

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/teamsinsc
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=teamsinsc

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.