# Tegevajaro Miyazaki vs. FC Ryūkyū

> Tegevajaro Miyazaki leads at 50%, runner-up 36% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 4 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/tegevajaro-miyazaki-vs-fc-ryky
Updated: 2026-05-03T16:35:59.198Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-06

## Headline

- Leader: Tegevajaro Miyazaki at 50%
- Runner-up: FC Ryūkyū at 36%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tegevajaro Miyazaki | 50¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/tegevajaro-miyazaki-vs-fc-ryky-tegevajaro-miyazaki-polymarket-0xc2e6a4403ddfe0b9778e6586ce822520d2c7df44690c2fe7ac4ee233ff0e5682 |
| FC Ryūkyū | 36¢ | +3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/tegevajaro-miyazaki-vs-fc-ryky-fc-ryky-polymarket-0xb521a175480555091a9cb13207e09cb5fa510b9c1cbc79593172818a975be4ca |
| Draw (Tegevajaro Miyazaki vs. FC Ryūkyū) | 35¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/tegevajaro-miyazaki-vs-fc-ryky-draw-tegevajaro-miy-polymarket-0x3740060edeffd09a418eb5616067ae79c89d4f023d4530f8bd43557d0c0a53c4 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Tegevajaro Miyazaki | FC Ryūkyū | Draw (Tegevajaro Miyazaki vs. FC Ryūkyū) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | 47 | 38 | 35 |
| 2026-05-02 | — | 37 | 36 |
| 2026-05-03 | 48 | 40 | 38 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · FC Ryūkyū +3pp 37→40¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This 47% probability indicates that market participants view Tegevajaro Miyazaki as slightly favored to win this matchup, with a meaningful 37% likelihood assigned to a draw outcome. The probability reflects expectations about relative team strength, recent form, and home-field advantage if applicable. Market participants are pricing in moderate goal-scoring potential, with both over/under 2.5 and 3.5 contracts near 54% and 36% respectively, suggesting expectations of a low-to-moderate scoring match. Liquidity is minimal across related contracts, with zero trading volume in the past 24 hours, indicating limited recent price discovery. The outcome will be determined by the match result itself—either a Tegevajaro Miyazaki win, a draw, or an FC Ryūkyū victory.

### Key factors

- Draw probability is priced at 37%, a substantial share, implying the matchup is viewed as competitive rather than lopsided
- Over/under 2.5 goals contract at 54% suggests expected total goals below 3, indicating expectations of defensive play or limited attacking threat
- Zero 24-hour trading volume across all related contracts indicates shallow liquidity and potentially stale pricing
- Tegevajaro Miyazaki's 47% win probability is modest—only 10 percentage points ahead of the draw—suggesting no strong consensus on the likely outcome
- Both-teams-to-score probability at 54% reflects moderate confidence that both sides will breach the opposing defense

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/tegevajaro-miyazaki-vs-fc-ryky
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=tegevajaro-miyazaki-vs-fc-ryky

## License

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