# Tegevajaro Miyazaki vs. Kagoshima United FC - More Markets

> Closed. Last odds frozen 2 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/tegevajaro-miyazaki-vs-kagoshima-united-fc-more-markets
Updated: 2026-05-07T06:35:43.886Z
Category: general
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-05-06

## Headline

- Probability: 29% (liquidity-weighted across 18 contracts)
- Venue: Polymarket (18 contracts)
- 24h volume: $181

## Bound contracts (18)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tegevajaro Miyazaki (-1.5) | 44¢ | +4pp | $108 | polymarket | /markets/tegevajaro-miyazaki-vs-fc-ryky-more-markets-tegeva-polymarket-0xf4a4fac8c8d180a8abfa3fac6a9fc1feb8683e02796fcb29a72114d07544188d |
| O/U 4.5 | 8¢ | −21pp | $43 | polymarket | /markets/kagoshima-united-fc-vs-ita-trinita-more-markets-ou-polymarket-0x58a7057d70e71e5d33a2d634f3f5da7546509c59bf8117285f1e3f6ee2f5db3a |
| Ōita Trinita (-2.5) | 4¢ | −27pp | $23 | polymarket | /markets/kagoshima-united-fc-vs-ita-trinita-more-markets-it-polymarket-0x181e3424ee0ee74f7515f00ded017f0f7b354f423316a80b2d2a69c69ab5d370 |
| Ōita Trinita (-1.5) | 7¢ | −29pp | $7 | polymarket | /markets/kagoshima-united-fc-vs-ita-trinita-more-markets-it-polymarket-0x88fc7b7ae3b2ecf42ec2828e86c4701f3039aaadb163445ff377480f84be35d4 |
| O/U 1.5 | 67¢ | −17pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kagoshima-united-fc-vs-ita-trinita-more-markets-ou-polymarket-0xc0ca93277e47ebfeac4868ad303dfb8d5487eab193fc355d227ffd9279f526cd |
| Kagoshima United FC (-2.5) | 9¢ | −32pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kagoshima-united-fc-vs-ita-trinita-more-markets-ka-polymarket-0xf7b2d59df5ec45e91e68eff046f5394e0a02d136238fb7ff8cf8b358cd3742fa |
| O/U 3.5 | 28¢ | −15pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/tegevajaro-miyazaki-vs-fc-ryky-more-markets-ou-35-polymarket-0x1caf6962e8fbf49f66b536026e037761fcd47ab75afe9af74bbb531929699174 |
| O/U 1.5 | 75¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/tegevajaro-miyazaki-vs-fc-ryky-more-markets-ou-15-polymarket-0xac71aa6aeeb0de74d6631af7f06f26aa7c78677554fa3a09866effb753dcfa1b |
| Both Teams to Score | 41¢ | −19pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/tegevajaro-miyazaki-vs-fc-ryky-more-markets-both-t-polymarket-0x37d876a9d5f7655defa7ea2238dc0240eaefa3782067817a5a9dea7340ba81d9 |
| O/U 3.5 | 19¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kagoshima-united-fc-vs-ita-trinita-more-markets-ou-polymarket-0xc65258b729eb812ed035c1f0a9f1f8908d226d1e1f9deb24b21d1857e9536bb8 |
| Both Teams to Score | 50¢ | −19pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kagoshima-united-fc-vs-ita-trinita-more-markets-bo-polymarket-0xe0cdd90db277e87907e88ff3672e492d88afe0c187c708157a5d9fb951da7a6d |
| FC Ryūkyū (-2.5) | 8¢ | −27pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/tegevajaro-miyazaki-vs-fc-ryky-more-markets-fc-ryk-polymarket-0x8122eecb61ff7994a30cd8642e7251cb932f7f149181dde3b3fc291ab69788bf |
| O/U 2.5 | 40¢ | −34pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kagoshima-united-fc-vs-ita-trinita-more-markets-ou-polymarket-0x439e354b22d6e164f4d31f50551836df502e9225f10f7da1eb62ecd6538682f7 |
| FC Ryūkyū (-1.5) | 3¢ | −26pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/tegevajaro-miyazaki-vs-fc-ryky-more-markets-fc-ryk-polymarket-0xc6d7d588de26b5dbb7a78c7a34e12fc319326a755cea73b832c0511423c43edc |
| Tegevajaro Miyazaki (-2.5) | 22¢ | −14pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/tegevajaro-miyazaki-vs-fc-ryky-more-markets-tegeva-polymarket-0xeba8015dbf05cbf409b2c78e871f712f738975cbbdc238bd4f878afdd4a7f645 |
| O/U 2.5 | 50¢ | −14pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/tegevajaro-miyazaki-vs-fc-ryky-more-markets-ou-25-polymarket-0x4ff230980f419d689a8012e22a7b3178862c5c5a461d646a2cb9dc02e4f60214 |
| O/U 4.5 | 13¢ | −20pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/tegevajaro-miyazaki-vs-fc-ryky-more-markets-ou-45-polymarket-0x0bd2ca80c5b4eb69938a57960a50cf81c58ed72f75e16fa5571ca48fcdea5488 |
| Kagoshima United FC (-1.5) | 25¢ | −18pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kagoshima-united-fc-vs-ita-trinita-more-markets-ka-polymarket-0x9d9d399d5805b6d04d783b7e23110f9c3a564d25f53a1d111bb05c7ca2ee1252 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | 42 |
| 2026-05-03 | 43 |
| 2026-05-06 | 24 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · O/U 2.5 −34pp 53→19¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Kagoshima United FC (-2.5) −32pp 37→5¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Ōita Trinita (-1.5) −29pp 38→9¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Ōita Trinita (-2.5) −27pp 38→11¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · FC Ryūkyū (-2.5) −27pp 38→11¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This 29% probability reflects the estimated likelihood that Tegevajaro Miyazaki will defeat Kagoshima United FC in their upcoming match. The probability sits at less than one-third, suggesting market participants view Kagoshima as favored. This valuation depends primarily on recent team performance, head-to-head records, and current league standings. Injuries, suspensions, or recent form changes could shift the probability either direction. The match outcome will be determined when the teams play, which would resolve all related contracts. Analysts typically weigh factors including each team's recent results, goal-scoring records, defensive statistics, home-field advantage if applicable, and any personnel changes affecting squad strength.

### Key factors

- Recent league position and points per game for both Tegevajaro Miyazaki and Kagoshima United FC in the current season
- Head-to-head historical match results and goal differentials between these two specific teams
- Injury or suspension status of key players for either team leading up to the match date
- Home versus away performance records, as venue significantly impacts match outcomes in football
- Current winning or losing streaks and momentum indicators for both clubs in the weeks preceding the fixture

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/tegevajaro-miyazaki-vs-kagoshima-united-fc-more-markets
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=tegevajaro-miyazaki-vs-kagoshima-united-fc-more-markets

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.