# Will Temu Monthly Credit Card Spend for August 2026 be above 114

> Above 96 leads at 94%, runner-up 93% across 14 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 h ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/temucc
Updated: 2026-08-10T15:20:50.135Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-09-07

## Headline

- Leader: Above 96 at 94%
- Runner-up: Above 98 at 93%
- Outcomes: 14 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (14 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (14)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 96 | 94¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-temu-monthly-credit-card-spend-for-august-202-kalshi-kxtemucc-26sep07-t96 |
| Above 98 | 93¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-temu-monthly-credit-card-spend-for-august-202-kalshi-kxtemucc-26sep07-t98 |
| Above 100 | 91¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-temu-monthly-credit-card-spend-for-august-202-kalshi-kxtemucc-26sep07-t100 |
| Above 102 | 87¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-temu-monthly-credit-card-spend-for-august-202-kalshi-kxtemucc-26sep07-t102 |
| Above 104 | 85¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-temu-monthly-credit-card-spend-for-august-202-kalshi-kxtemucc-26sep07-t104 |
| Above 106 | 77¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-temu-monthly-credit-card-spend-for-august-202-kalshi-kxtemucc-26sep07-t106 |
| Above 108 | 68¢ | −4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-temu-monthly-credit-card-spend-for-august-202-kalshi-kxtemucc-26sep07-t108 |
| Above 110 | 60¢ | −4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-temu-monthly-credit-card-spend-for-august-202-kalshi-kxtemucc-26sep07-t110 |
| Above 112 | 49¢ | −5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-temu-monthly-credit-card-spend-for-august-202-kalshi-kxtemucc-26sep07-t112 |
| Above 114 | 46¢ | −4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-temu-monthly-credit-card-spend-for-august-202-kalshi-kxtemucc-26sep07-t114 |
| Above 116 | 37¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-temu-monthly-credit-card-spend-for-august-202-kalshi-kxtemucc-26sep07-t116 |
| Above 118 | 31¢ | −4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-temu-monthly-credit-card-spend-for-august-202-kalshi-kxtemucc-26sep07-t118 |
| Above 120 | 28¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-temu-monthly-credit-card-spend-for-august-202-kalshi-kxtemucc-26sep07-t120 |
| Above 122 | 23¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-temu-monthly-credit-card-spend-for-august-202-kalshi-kxtemucc-26sep07-t122 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 96 | Above 98 | Above 100 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04 | 58 | 58 | 58 |
| 2026-08-05 | 77 | 67 | 74 |
| 2026-08-06 | 95 | 94 | 94 |
| 2026-08-09 | 94 | 93 | 91 |

_4 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-05 · Above 114 +32pp 25→57¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-05 · Above 118 +32pp 10→42¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-05 · Above 112 +28pp 31→59¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-05 · Above 120 +27pp 15→42¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-06 · Above 98 +27pp 67→94¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market asks whether Temu's US monthly credit card spending will exceed $114 million in August 2026. The current 49% probability indicates substantial uncertainty about whether spending will reach this threshold. The outcome depends primarily on user acquisition and retention trends, as well as seasonal consumer spending patterns in August. Credit card transaction data typically becomes available with a lag of 1-2 months, meaning the August result would likely be confirmed by early October 2026. The contract pricing suggests meaningful probability mass around the $100-106 million range, with declining odds for higher thresholds, indicating market skepticism about sustained acceleration beyond typical summer levels.

### Key factors

- Temu's monthly active user growth rate in Q3 2026 and user engagement trends relative to competitive pressure from other platforms
- Average transaction value per user and frequency of repeat purchases during the August period
- Seasonal spending patterns in e-commerce and consumer discretionary categories during summer months
- Availability of competing platforms and promotional activity from rivals that could shift spending shares
- Historical volatility in monthly credit card spend figures and whether August 2026 shows typical seasonal variation or structural changes

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/temucc
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=temucc

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.