# Tennessee Democratic Senate Primary Winner

> Marquita Bradshaw leads at 72%, runner-up 14% across 5 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 11 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/tennessee-democratic-senate-primary-winner
Updated: 2026-05-03T15:05:59.267Z
Category: general · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2026-08-06

## Headline

- Leader: Marquita Bradshaw at 72%
- Runner-up: Diana Onyeijaka at 14%
- Outcomes: 5 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (5 contracts)
- 24h volume: $195

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquita Bradshaw | 72¢ | ±0 | $75 | polymarket | /markets/tennessee-democratic-senate-primary-winner-marquit-polymarket-0x253a4a01dd09a35fd73e6671ddaacada7af886af4d5c196dfc9a6d50b1e735ba |
| Diana Onyeijaka | 14¢ | — | $30 | polymarket | /markets/tennessee-democratic-senate-primary-winner-diana-o-polymarket-0x9d34dd818467111581a0d7ca8c7e3160fa7e29f204273bfe41c2306da7ca75ed |
| Maria Brewer | 12¢ | −4pp | $30 | polymarket | /markets/tennessee-democratic-senate-primary-winner-maria-b-polymarket-0x643a958ddf5f32f89a0a1e926b639e4c6589e7482cd5267597aa0cc72a70018d |
| Civil Miller-Watkins | 6¢ | −3pp | $30 | polymarket | /markets/tennessee-democratic-senate-primary-winner-civil-m-polymarket-0xba0b63515cf8d5fc1b3cdb50286c3190f675e38adb82e6e264ff773b22f149f3 |
| Kevin Lee McCants | 5¢ | ±0 | $30 | polymarket | /markets/tennessee-democratic-senate-primary-winner-kevin-l-polymarket-0x69a253a4deb42498ed12710fc52ea09fd49e4fa57af4c62095b07c1b46167c59 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Marquita Bradshaw | Maria Brewer | Civil Miller-Watkins |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | 71 | 16 | 12 |
| 2026-05-02 | 72 | 18 | 9 |
| 2026-05-03 | 72 | 14 | 6 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · Maria Brewer −4pp 18→14¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · Civil Miller-Watkins −3pp 12→9¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Civil Miller-Watkins −3pp 9→6¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · Kevin Lee McCants +3pp 1→4¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This probability reflects market participants' assessment that Marquita Bradshaw will win the Tennessee Democratic Senate primary, with a 72% implied likelihood based on aggregated prediction markets. The leading position likely reflects her visibility and fundraising relative to the runner-up candidate at 14%. Movement in this probability would depend on campaign developments, donor momentum, earned media, and polling data if available. The primary election date will definitively resolve this market; until then, changes in candidate viability signals—endorsements, cash-on-hand reports, debate performance, or local media coverage—would be the primary drivers of probability shifts.

### Key factors

- Marquita Bradshaw's current 72% price versus the runner-up's 14% suggests a meaningful but not overwhelming market confidence in her nomination path
- Market volume and pricing reflect real-money bets; the relative prices of four distinct contracts indicate differentiation among candidates rather than consensus certainty
- Tennessee's Democratic primary rules, voter registration numbers, and candidate filing deadlines establish hard constraints on who can compete and when the race concludes
- Public polling, FEC filings showing cash available, and endorsements from established Tennessee Democratic figures would provide testable signals of candidate momentum
- The gap between the leader (72%) and runner-up (14%) leaves room for a consolidation or surprise, suggesting the outcome remains contingent on primary-season events

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/tennessee-democratic-senate-primary-winner
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=tennessee-democratic-senate-primary-winner
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.