# Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 26% across 18 contracts — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/tesla-and-spacex-merger-officially-announced-june-30
Updated: 2026-05-03T14:05:28.574Z
Category: technology · Topic: ai-tech
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-30

## Headline

- Probability: 26% (liquidity-weighted across 18 contracts)
- Cross-venue: Kalshi 28% / Polymarket 8% — 20pp spread
- 24h volume: $1K

## Bound contracts (18)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before 2030 | 65¢ | ±0 | $406 | kalshi | /markets/will-blue-origin-land-an-uncrewed-blue-moon-mk1-la-kalshi-kxbluespacex-30 |
| Before 2030 | 29¢ | +1pp | $303 | kalshi | /markets/will-spacex-land-anything-on-mars-before-2030-befo-kalshi-kxspacexmars-30 |
| Before Apr 1, 2027 | 27¢ | +1pp | $288 | kalshi | /markets/will-tesla-or-spacex-announce-a-definitive-binding-kalshi-kxcompanyactionmerger-27-27apr01 |
| Before May 1, 2027 | 33¢ | −1pp | $125 | kalshi | /markets/will-tesla-or-spacex-announce-a-definitive-binding-kalshi-kxcompanyactionmerger-27-27may01 |
| Before Mar 1, 2027 | 17¢ | +1pp | $100 | kalshi | /markets/will-tesla-or-spacex-announce-a-definitive-binding-kalshi-kxcompanyactionmerger-27-27mar01 |
| Before 2027 | 28¢ | ±0 | $2 | kalshi | /markets/will-a-new-main-fast-furious-film-be-officially-an-kalshi-kxfastandfuriousrelease-27 |
| Yes | 7¢ | −1pp | $1 | kalshi | /markets/will-elon-musk-or-tesla-or-spacex-take-a-stake-in-kalshi-kxcompanystakeryanair-27jan01 |
| Tesla and xAI merger officially announced by June 30? | 4¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/tesla-and-xai-merger-officially-announced-by-june-polymarket-0xc49487996b94574c24dfc6250a0dfe01815485c679784822fee6a359022cae0f |
| Before Aug 1, 2026 | 4¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-tesla-or-spacex-announce-a-definitive-binding-kalshi-kxcompanyactionmerger-27-26aug01 |
| Glencore and Rio Tinto sale/merger announced by June 30? | 12¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/glencore-and-rio-tinto-salemerger-announced-by-jun-polymarket-0x1d36cf8059fa5a71c79bc41bdc7233fa9e505085ce359b6d01f3fc15f98c3b96 |
| Before Nov 1, 2026 | 9¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-tesla-or-spacex-announce-a-definitive-binding-kalshi-kxcompanyactionmerger-27-26nov01 |
| Before Dec 1, 2026 | 9¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-tesla-or-spacex-announce-a-definitive-binding-kalshi-kxcompanyactionmerger-27-26dec01 |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 13¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-tesla-or-spacex-announce-a-definitive-binding-kalshi-kxcompanyactionmerger-27-27jan01 |
| Before Feb 1, 2027 | 12¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-tesla-or-spacex-announce-a-definitive-binding-kalshi-kxcompanyactionmerger-27-27feb01 |
| Before Oct 1, 2026 | 6¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-tesla-or-spacex-announce-a-definitive-binding-kalshi-kxcompanyactionmerger-27-26oct01 |
| Poland | 92¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-poland-officially-participate-in-eurovision-s-kalshi-kxeurovisionparticipants-26-pol |
| Finland | 89¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-finland-officially-participate-in-eurovision-kalshi-kxeurovisionparticipants-26-fin |
| Before Sep 1, 2026 | 6¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-tesla-or-spacex-announce-a-definitive-binding-kalshi-kxcompanyactionmerger-27-26sep01 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | 22 |
| 2026-04-19 | 30 |
| 2026-04-26 | 22 |
| 2026-05-03 | 29 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-04-28 · Glencore and Rio Tinto sale/merger announced by June 30? +17pp 5→22¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-29 · Glencore and Rio Tinto sale/merger announced by June 30? −14pp 22→8¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-28 · Tesla and xAI merger officially announced by June 30? +10pp 5→15¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-29 · Tesla and xAI merger officially announced by June 30? −10pp 15→5¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-27 · Before 2030 +3pp 59→62¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/tesla-and-spacex-merger-officially-announced-june-30
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=tesla-and-spacex-merger-officially-announced-june-30
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/ai-tech

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