# Will Tesla release Optimus by...

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 14% across 1 contract — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/tesla-release-optimus
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:50:43.036Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Probability: 14% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $52

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 14¢ | −1pp | $52 | polymarket | /markets/will-tesla-release-optimus-by-december-31-polymarket-0xf31dc5f107bb556840fffa2bd0a503f891d82e61b0b7764e60cd92faec52a919 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 22 |
| 2026-04-25 | 18 |
| 2026-05-01 | 14 |
| 2026-05-08 | 15 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This contract reflects market expectations that Tesla will deliver a commercially available Optimus humanoid robot by a specified deadline. At 13%, traders assess this outcome as unlikely within the timeframe, suggesting skepticism about Tesla's development timeline or the definition of 'release.' The probability could shift based on Tesla's quarterly earnings calls and product demonstrations, where management typically provides updates on robotics progress. The single biggest catalyst would be an official announcement from Tesla with a concrete delivery date and customer availability plan, which would either validate near-term deployment or push expectations further out. Current market pricing suggests participants view the technical and manufacturing challenges as substantial relative to Tesla's historical timelines for new products.

### Key factors

- Tesla has not publicly committed to a specific Optimus release date; any official announcement with a defined deadline would materially impact contract value
- Previous Tesla product launches have experienced delays relative to initial projections, informing trader skepticism about aggressive robotics timelines
- The contract's resolution criteria—what constitutes 'release' (prototype demo, pre-order availability, limited production, or mass market)—directly affects interpretation of whether the threshold is met
- Competitive development of humanoid robots by Boston Dynamics, Figure AI, and others could influence market assessment of Tesla's relative progress
- Manufacturing capacity and supply chain readiness for humanoid production remain unproven at scale, creating uncertainty distinct from purely technical feasibility

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/tesla-release-optimus
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=tesla-release-optimus

## License

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