# Will Tesla Inc report above 1000 Semi Trucks Produced before Jan 2027

> Above 0 leads at 87%, runner-up 48% across 6 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 23 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/teslasemi
Updated: 2026-06-29T02:20:51.120Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: Above 0 at 87%
- Runner-up: Above 1000 at 48%
- Outcomes: 6 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 0 | 87¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-tesla-inc-report-above-0-semi-trucks-produced-kalshi-kxteslasemi-27jan-0 |
| Above 1000 | 48¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-tesla-inc-report-above-1000-semi-trucks-produ-kalshi-kxteslasemi-27jan-1000 |
| Above 5000 | 14¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-tesla-inc-report-above-5000-semi-trucks-produ-kalshi-kxteslasemi-27jan-5000 |
| Above 10000 | 4¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-tesla-inc-report-above-10000-semi-trucks-prod-kalshi-kxteslasemi-27jan-10000 |
| Above 15000 | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-tesla-inc-report-above-15000-semi-trucks-prod-kalshi-kxteslasemi-27jan-15000 |
| Above 20000 | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-tesla-inc-report-above-20000-semi-trucks-prod-kalshi-kxteslasemi-27jan-20000 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 0 | Above 1000 | Above 5000 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-30 | — | 53 | — |
| 2026-06-02 | — | 53 | 13 |
| 2026-06-10 | 88 | 50 | 12 |
| 2026-06-15 | 92 | 47 | 12 |
| 2026-06-21 | 87 | 49 | 12 |
| 2026-06-22 | — | 48 | 13 |
| 2026-06-24 | 87 | 48 | 14 |
| 2026-06-26 | 87 | — | 13 |
| 2026-06-27 | — | — | 14 |

_28 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This contract reflects whether Tesla will produce over 1,000 Semi Trucks cumulatively before January 2027—a threshold representing meaningful progress toward mass production of its commercial vehicle. At 96%, the market assigns very high confidence to this outcome, suggesting either that production has already neared this volume by May 2026 or that the remaining production window is sufficient to reach it. The key driver of this probability is Tesla's historical ramp trajectory for new vehicle programs and current Semi production capacity. The main uncertainty centers on whether supply chain disruptions, demand variability, or manufacturing delays could slow the pace in the final months. Tesla's Q4 2026 production report, expected in early January 2027, will definitively resolve this question by confirming cumulative Semi output through year-end 2026.

### Key factors

- Tesla's actual Semi production volumes through Q3 2026, which determine how many units must be manufactured in Q4 to cross 1,000
- The company's stated production capacity and utilization rates at the Gigafactory Berlin and Austin facilities where Semis are built
- Historical accuracy of Tesla's delivery and production guidance relative to initially announced targets for new vehicle programs
- Supply chain constraints for critical Semi components and their impact on factory throughput during H2 2026
- Competitive and contractual demand for Semi Trucks, which affects whether Tesla sustains production pace or encounters order fluctuations

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/teslasemi
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=teslasemi

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.