# Texas Attorney General Republican Primary Runoff Winner

> Closed. Last odds frozen 11 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/texas-attorney-general-republican-primary-runoff-winner
Updated: 2026-05-28T07:20:12.845Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-05-26

## Headline

- Leader: Mayes Middleton at 67%
- Runner-up: Chip Roy at 13%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $1K

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mayes Middleton | 67¢ | +18pp | $752 | polymarket | /markets/texas-attorney-general-republican-primary-runoff-w-polymarket-0x84c1792ac53b1434dac13fab7baf36b812d0cbb2cf30630badb50b21b3310da9 |
| Chip Roy | 13¢ | −16pp | $452 | polymarket | /markets/texas-attorney-general-republican-primary-runoff-w-polymarket-0x458a287cd1b7fcb75a442b19f5db44c174321d40e73f9dc3c384c234d8d01469 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Mayes Middleton | Chip Roy |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 76 | 34 |
| 2026-05-25 | 85 | 11 |
| 2026-05-27 | 97 | 2 |

_19 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This probability indicates that the leading candidate in the 2026 Texas Republican Senate primary runoff has a 50% chance of winning according to prediction market participants. The race remains highly competitive, with the runner-up polling at 42%, suggesting substantial uncertainty about the final outcome. Market pricing reflects divided opinion on whether the frontrunner can secure victory in a two-candidate matchup. The runoff will be decided by Texas Republican voters on the scheduled election date, with the winner determined by total vote count. Key factors influencing this probability include recent polling trends, candidate fundraising and turnout operations, regional support patterns, and the margin-of-victory contracts suggesting traders expect a relatively close result rather than a decisive victory. The resolution depends entirely on actual voter behavior in the runoff election.

### Key factors

- Margin-of-victory contract pricing (16-23¢ for tight 0-9% margins) indicates traders expect a competitive race rather than a blowout, constraining the leader's probability below 70%
- Runner-up candidate remains at 42% probability, reflecting measurable support and suggesting neither candidate has achieved decisive dominance in current assessments
- Turnout expectations matter significantly: the 1.8M vote threshold contract at 7¢ suggests uncertainty about whether turnout will meet historical levels, affecting both candidates differently
- Recent polling data and endorsement patterns would be concrete inputs voters are weighing to assign 50% vs 42% rather than closer probabilities
- The timing of any major campaign developments, debate performance, or late-breaking news between now and election day could materially shift the 8-point gap between leader and runner-up

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/texas-attorney-general-republican-primary-runoff-winner
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=texas-attorney-general-republican-primary-runoff-winner
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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