# Texas Republican Senate Primary Winner

> Closed. Last odds frozen 11 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/texas-republican-senate-primary-winner
Updated: 2026-05-28T07:20:12.845Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-05-26

## Headline

- Leader: Ken Paxton at 96%
- Runner-up: John Cornyn at 4%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $120K

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ken Paxton | 96¢ | +4pp | $88K | polymarket | /markets/texas-republican-senate-primary-winner-ken-paxton-polymarket-0x99a0fdc1bb6308873bf87eb75a47e21c8340fe20fb6b033444c1d21392da10a9 |
| John Cornyn | 4¢ | −3pp | $32K | polymarket | /markets/texas-republican-senate-primary-winner-john-cornyn-polymarket-0x781a06aa5779f97724b75ed8128aaf72c4a8955c893a6fefdc0efd7cb001c513 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Ken Paxton | John Cornyn |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 58 | 43 |
| 2026-05-25 | 96 | 4 |
| 2026-05-27 | 100 | 0 |

_17 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

Ken Paxton holds a 57% probability of winning the Texas Republican Senate primary, reflecting moderately favorable odds among prediction market participants. This probability suggests genuine uncertainty, with Cornyn at 43% representing a meaningful competitive threat. The outcome hinges on voter appetite for Paxton's record as Attorney General versus any concerns about his prior legal challenges, combined with campaign organization and endorsement dynamics heading into the primary. National political dynamics, fundraising reports, and polling data closer to the election will likely shift these odds, as will any significant candidate developments or endorsements from Texas Republican leadership. The primary election date will be the decisive catalyst, providing the definitive outcome and resolving current market positioning.

### Key factors

- Paxton's current Attorney General tenure and approval rating among Texas Republicans versus Cornyn's prior Senate service and establishment backing
- Fundraising totals and cash-on-hand figures for both candidates as reported through FEC filings
- Public polling of the Texas Republican primary matchup released in the months preceding the election
- Endorsement patterns from major Texas Republican figures, party leadership, and national Republican organizations
- Voter turnout levels and demographic composition in the actual primary election relative to historical patterns

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/texas-republican-senate-primary-winner
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=texas-republican-senate-primary-winner
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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