# Texas Senate Republican Primary Runoff Margin of Victory

> Closed. Last odds frozen 1 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/texas-senate-republican-primary-runoff-margin-of-victory
Updated: 2026-06-14T07:20:50.569Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-05-25

## Headline

- Leader: Paxton 9%+ at 85%
- Runner-up: Paxton 6–9% at 4%
- Outcomes: 5 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (5 contracts)
- 24h volume: $15K

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paxton 9%+ | 85¢ | +13pp | $9K | polymarket | /markets/texas-senate-republican-primary-runoff-margin-of-v-polymarket-0xfce5fb1312e1383038cbe594477429d920d6dfe4d1885da678ca511ed81ea6f1 |
| Paxton 6–9% | 4¢ | −14pp | $2K | polymarket | /markets/texas-senate-republican-primary-runoff-margin-of-v-polymarket-0xf7cabaf4d6c529cc8ff3c947d432d69b558f165158df772e6eb317bb1ea32be9 |
| Cornyn <3% | 4¢ | −4pp | $2K | polymarket | /markets/texas-senate-republican-primary-runoff-margin-of-v-polymarket-0xfbe28d2997101a180d742259c92db1ca447a9b6ae498c46b44ff96c9894feadf |
| Paxton 3–6% | 4¢ | −4pp | $1K | polymarket | /markets/texas-senate-republican-primary-runoff-margin-of-v-polymarket-0x94bbf835c1b7fabb7ddd41e53e3c194cb1f34387946f979c6295717a2d722b2c |
| Paxton <3% | 3¢ | +1pp | $826 | polymarket | /markets/texas-senate-republican-primary-runoff-margin-of-v-polymarket-0x7539e672729f47054481fbcc411cca685311f8664f86e78d189638e2ca2c76bb |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Paxton 9%+ | Paxton 6–9% | Cornyn <3% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | — | 23 | 21 |
| 2026-05-18 | 17 | 22 | 20 |
| 2026-05-27 | 87 | 2 | 0 |
| 2026-05-28 | 100 | — | — |

_13 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This 26% probability reflects market expectations that Ken Paxton will win the Texas Republican Senate runoff by a margin between 15% and 20%. The current price distribution suggests traders are uncertain about the final margin, with meaningful probability mass across multiple outcome buckets from 0-5% up to 20%+. The key drivers of this assessment are Paxton's performance and name recognition in the general Republican primary electorate, his opponent's relative strength in key geographic regions, and turnout patterns in runoff elections which typically differ from primary contests. The runoff election itself will resolve this market completely, determining the actual margin of victory and validating or contradicting current market expectations about whether the race will be competitive or decisive.

### Key factors

- Turnout composition in runoff elections historically differs from first-round primaries, affecting which candidate's base mobilizes most effectively
- Paxton's statewide office experience and incumbent advantage versus opponent's regional or organizational strengths in specific Texas counties
- Early voting and absentee ballot participation rates, which may shift the electorate composition compared to election day voters
- Post-primary polling showing Paxton's standing relative to runoff opponent among registered Republican voters
- Geographic distribution of remaining candidate support, particularly performance differences in major metropolitan areas versus rural Texas counties

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/texas-senate-republican-primary-runoff-margin-of-victory
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=texas-senate-republican-primary-runoff-margin-of-victory
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

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