# Will Target Corporation report above 0.5% Number of Transaction Change in Q1 2026

> Above 0% leads at 94%, runner-up 91% across 18 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 56 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/tgt
Updated: 2026-08-10T15:20:50.861Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-03-19

## Headline

- Leader: Above 0% at 94%
- Runner-up: Above 0.5% at 91%
- Outcomes: 18 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (18 contracts)
- 24h volume: $489
- Resolved: above -3.5%

## Bound contracts (18)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 0% | 94¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-target-corporation-report-above-0-comparable-kalshi-kxtgt-26novcomp-0.0 |
| Above 0.5% | 91¢ | ±0 | $200 | kalshi | /markets/will-target-corporation-report-above-05-comparable-kalshi-kxtgt-26novcomp-0.5 |
| Above 1% | 86¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-target-corporation-report-above-1-comparable-kalshi-kxtgt-26novcomp-1.0 |
| Above 1.5% | 81¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-target-corporation-report-above-15-comparable-kalshi-kxtgt-26novcomp-1.5 |
| Above 2% | 75¢ | +26pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-target-corporation-report-above-2-transaction-kalshi-kxtgt-26augtxchg-2.0 |
| Above 2% | 72¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-target-corporation-report-above-2-comparable-kalshi-kxtgt-26novcomp-2.0 |
| Above 2.5% | 67¢ | ±0 | $1 | kalshi | /markets/will-target-corporation-report-above-25-transactio-kalshi-kxtgt-26augtxchg-2.5 |
| Above 2.5% | 61¢ | +5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-target-corporation-report-above-25-comparable-kalshi-kxtgt-26novcomp-2.5 |
| Above 3% | 52¢ | +1pp | $31 | kalshi | /markets/will-target-corporation-report-above-3-transaction-kalshi-kxtgt-26augtxchg-3.0 |
| Above 3% | 49¢ | +2pp | $200 | kalshi | /markets/will-target-corporation-report-above-3-comparable-kalshi-kxtgt-26novcomp-3.0 |
| Above 3.5% | 35¢ | +1pp | $57 | kalshi | /markets/will-target-corporation-report-above-35-transactio-kalshi-kxtgt-26augtxchg-3.5 |
| Above 3.5% | 34¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-target-corporation-report-above-35-comparable-kalshi-kxtgt-26novcomp-3.5 |
| Above 4% | 22¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-target-corporation-report-above-4-transaction-kalshi-kxtgt-26augtxchg-4.0 |
| Above 4% | 21¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-target-corporation-report-above-4-comparable-kalshi-kxtgt-26novcomp-4.0 |
| Above 4.5% | 16¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-target-corporation-report-above-45-transactio-kalshi-kxtgt-26augtxchg-4.5 |
| Above 4.5% | 11¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-target-corporation-report-above-45-comparable-kalshi-kxtgt-26novcomp-4.5 |
| Above 5% | 8¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-target-corporation-report-above-5-transaction-kalshi-kxtgt-26augtxchg-5.0 |
| Above 5% | 4¢ | −5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-target-corporation-report-above-5-comparable-kalshi-kxtgt-26novcomp-5.0 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 0% | Above 0.5% | Above 1% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04 | 61 | 59 | 56 |
| 2026-08-05 | 93 | 88 | 82 |
| 2026-08-06 | — | — | 84 |
| 2026-08-09 | 94 | 88 | 84 |

_4 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-05 · Above 0% +32pp 61→93¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-05 · Above 0.5% +29pp 59→88¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-05 · Above 2% +28pp 41→69¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-07 · Above 2% +26pp 49→75¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-05 · Above 1% +26pp 56→82¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This 37% probability indicates that traders view it as unlikely Target will report transaction growth exceeding 2.5% in Q2 2026. The market has priced in moderate skepticism about retail transaction expansion, likely reflecting cautious consumer spending patterns and competitive retail pressures. Transaction growth depends on both customer traffic volume and basket size, which are sensitive to macroeconomic conditions, promotional intensity, and consumer discretionary spending trends. The wider market will gain clarity when Target releases Q2 2026 earnings results, typically in mid-to-late August 2026, providing actual transaction metrics against these forward expectations. Currently, the contract cluster suggests traders see roughly one-in-three odds of Target exceeding the 2.5% threshold, with much steeper odds against outcomes above 3.5%.

### Key factors

- Q2 2026 spans April-June, with results typically reported 6-8 weeks after quarter close; August earnings announcement will definitively settle the outcome
- Consumer discretionary spending and foot traffic trends in the second quarter directly influence transaction counts; inflation and interest rates affect retail demand
- Target's promotional calendar, inventory management, and competitive positioning versus Amazon and other retailers shape customer transaction behavior
- The 36¢ and 37¢ prices on above-2% and above-2.5% outcomes suggest traders see material probability difference between modest and moderate growth targets
- Historical Target transaction growth patterns and current year-over-year comparisons provide baseline expectations for what constitutes achievable growth

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/tgt
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=tgt

## License

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