# Will Target Monthly Foot Traffic for August 2026 be above 88

> Above 88 leads at 88%, runner-up 80% across 13 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 4 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/tgtft
Updated: 2026-08-09T23:20:49.263Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-09-07

## Headline

- Leader: Above 88 at 88%
- Runner-up: Above 89 at 80%
- Outcomes: 13 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (13 contracts)
- 24h volume: $1K

## Bound contracts (13)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 88 | 88¢ | +28pp | $15 | kalshi | /markets/will-target-monthly-foot-traffic-for-august-2026-b-kalshi-kxtgtft-26sep07-t88 |
| Above 89 | 80¢ | +22pp | $15 | kalshi | /markets/will-target-monthly-foot-traffic-for-august-2026-b-kalshi-kxtgtft-26sep07-t89 |
| Above 91 | 77¢ | ±0 | $944 | kalshi | /markets/will-target-monthly-foot-traffic-for-august-2026-b-kalshi-kxtgtft-26sep07-t91 |
| Above 90 | 74¢ | +17pp | $15 | kalshi | /markets/will-target-monthly-foot-traffic-for-august-2026-b-kalshi-kxtgtft-26sep07-t90 |
| Above 92 | 71¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-target-monthly-foot-traffic-for-august-2026-b-kalshi-kxtgtft-26sep07-t92 |
| Above 93 | 61¢ | −3pp | $83 | kalshi | /markets/will-target-monthly-foot-traffic-for-august-2026-b-kalshi-kxtgtft-26sep07-t93 |
| Above 94 | 46¢ | −2pp | $28 | kalshi | /markets/will-target-monthly-foot-traffic-for-august-2026-b-kalshi-kxtgtft-26sep07-t94 |
| Above 95 | 36¢ | −2pp | $199 | kalshi | /markets/will-target-monthly-foot-traffic-for-august-2026-b-kalshi-kxtgtft-26sep07-t95 |
| Above 96 | 30¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-target-monthly-foot-traffic-for-august-2026-b-kalshi-kxtgtft-26sep07-t96 |
| Above 97 | 27¢ | −5pp | $85 | kalshi | /markets/will-target-monthly-foot-traffic-for-august-2026-b-kalshi-kxtgtft-26sep07-t97 |
| Above 98 | 24¢ | −1pp | $35 | kalshi | /markets/will-target-monthly-foot-traffic-for-august-2026-b-kalshi-kxtgtft-26sep07-t98 |
| Above 99 | 20¢ | −5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-target-monthly-foot-traffic-for-august-2026-b-kalshi-kxtgtft-26sep07-t99 |
| Above 100 | 15¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-target-monthly-foot-traffic-for-august-2026-b-kalshi-kxtgtft-26sep07-t100 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 88 | Above 89 | Above 91 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04 | 62 | 62 | 61 |
| 2026-08-05 | 90 | 84 | 80 |
| 2026-08-06 | — | — | 77 |
| 2026-08-09 | — | — | 77 |

_4 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-05 · Above 88 +28pp 62→90¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-05 · Above 89 +22pp 62→84¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-05 · Above 91 +19pp 61→80¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-05 · Above 97 +18pp 13→31¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-05 · Above 90 +17pp 61→78¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This represents a close-to-even assessment of whether Target's foot traffic in August 2026 will exceed 88 million monthly visits. At 49% probability, the market suggests genuine uncertainty about where August traffic will land relative to this threshold. Target's store traffic typically fluctuates based on seasonal shopping patterns, back-to-school sales cycles, and broader consumer spending. August traditionally sees increased retail foot traffic due to back-to-school shopping and summer clearance events, though this can vary with economic conditions and competitive pressures. The resolution will depend on actual reported traffic figures for the month, which Target may disclose through earnings reports or investor updates. The clustering of contract prices around 50-51 cents across the 88-92 range suggests the market views August foot traffic as likely to fall somewhere in this band, with meaningful probability distributed across outcomes both above and below 88 million visits.

### Key factors

- Target's historical August foot traffic volumes relative to the 88-million threshold, including year-over-year seasonal patterns
- Back-to-school shopping intensity in August 2026 and its impact on overall store traffic relative to 2025 and prior years
- Reported or tracked foot traffic data from Target's official financial disclosures, investor presentations, or third-party retail analytics
- Broader consumer spending behavior and discretionary retail traffic trends in the 2026 economic environment
- Competitive dynamics and promotional intensity from rival retailers during August that may shift traffic patterns

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/tgtft
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=tgtft

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.