# Will 3 mg THC beverages qualify as hemp under federal law on Dec 10, 2026

> On Nov 13, 2026 leads at 88%, runner-up 80% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 47 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/thc3mg-fed
Updated: 2026-09-25T06:20:49.127Z
Category: legislation
Status: active
Closes: 2027-11-20

## Headline

- Leader: On Nov 13, 2026 at 88%
- Runner-up: On Dec 10, 2026 at 80%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $144

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| On Nov 13, 2026 | 88¢ | +1pp | $141 | kalshi | /markets/will-3-mg-thc-beverages-qualify-as-hemp-under-fede-kalshi-kxthc3mg-fed-26nov13 |
| On Dec 10, 2026 | 80¢ | +1pp | $3 | kalshi | /markets/will-3-mg-thc-beverages-qualify-as-hemp-under-fede-kalshi-kxthc3mg-fed-26dec10 |
| On Mar 13, 2027 | 62¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-3-mg-thc-beverages-qualify-as-hemp-under-fede-kalshi-kxthc3mg-fed-27mar13 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | On Nov 13, 2026 | On Dec 10, 2026 | On Mar 13, 2027 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | 37 | 63 | 72 |
| 2026-09-11 | 91 | 93 | 85 |
| 2026-09-18 | — | 83 | 87 |
| 2026-09-19 | 92 | — | — |
| 2026-09-25 | 89 | 80 | 62 |

_23 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-09-18 · On Mar 13, 2027 +83pp 4→87¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-23 · On Nov 13, 2026 −16pp 92→76¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-23 · On Mar 13, 2027 −16pp 87→71¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-24 · On Nov 13, 2026 +12pp 76→88¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-24 · On Mar 13, 2027 −10pp 71→61¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market estimates the likelihood that 3 mg THC beverages will be classified as hemp under federal law by December 10, 2026. Current probability across contracts ranges from 33–42%, with earlier resolution dates trading lower than later ones, suggesting uncertainty about timing. The outcome depends on how federal regulators interpret existing hemp definitions, particularly the 2018 Farm Bill's 0.3% THC threshold by dry weight, and whether beverages by volume could meet that standard. Key upcoming regulatory actions—including potential guidance from the DEA or FDA, congressional activity, or state-federal coordination on hemp standards—could substantially shift expectations. The November 2026 contracts trade at 36%, indicating traders view a resolution within months as less likely than one pushed into 2027.

### Key factors

- The 2018 Farm Bill's 0.3% THC dry-weight standard does not explicitly address liquid products, leaving regulatory interpretation open
- Earlier resolution dates (November 2026) trade 6–9 cents lower than later dates (November 2027), reflecting market skepticism about near-term federal clarification
- No major FDA or DEA guidance specifically addressing THC beverage classification has been published or scheduled publicly as of August 2026
- Trading volume concentrates on the November 2026 contract ($639 24h), suggesting the most active expectation is an answer within 3 months
- The 42% probability for the latest date indicates markets assign meaningful probability to hemp-compliant THC beverages, but treat it as less likely than regulatory rejection or continued ambiguity

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/thc3mg-fed
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=thc3mg-fed

## License

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