# Thespa Gunma vs. Vegalta Sendai

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 40% across 20 contracts — refreshed 10 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/thespa-gunma-vs-vegalta-sendai
Updated: 2026-05-03T15:20:55.582Z
Category: general
Status: active

## Headline

- Probability: 40% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Venue: Polymarket (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O/U 1.5 | 65¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/montedio-yamagata-vs-thespa-gunma-more-markets-ou-polymarket-0xda0ea1b669fd6281e67c2f7debf289881de763bfb3598afef4fb3494f629f5e3 |
| Draw (Montedio Yamagata vs. Thespa Gunma) | 35¢ | +3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/montedio-yamagata-vs-thespa-gunma-draw-montedio-ya-polymarket-0x278ee235cb895726835eeec20b13e099114a34ea505952c76b11540b3ce8b2ff |
| Both Teams to Score | 51¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/montedio-yamagata-vs-thespa-gunma-more-markets-bot-polymarket-0xd6d00ce85db87360ad28c70342a8f2b87d703ebe7a319dca09821a11ab48a2e5 |
| O/U 4.5 | 28¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/vegalta-sendai-vs-tochigi-sc-more-markets-ou-45-polymarket-0xfec7ef139b3060db1db11b3dc8203327323c9b60d3c560ac1f429de131a000d0 |
| O/U 2.5 | 52¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/montedio-yamagata-vs-thespa-gunma-more-markets-ou-polymarket-0xc26872899f3bb280f768daa4b24340eefcd3e924616c27e97fe754db78535101 |
| Thespa Gunma (-1.5) | 33¢ | +4pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/montedio-yamagata-vs-thespa-gunma-more-markets-the-polymarket-0xa980d10a592f891e94f3c9e054856ca18d8b4366d3ef3083af9f2cf89e0029b1 |
| Tochigi SC (-1.5) | 33¢ | +4pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/vegalta-sendai-vs-tochigi-sc-more-markets-tochigi-polymarket-0x97bc0649619d77c5ea2b101aea9e958937c2188fc3465b6035f159133111aeed |
| Thespa Gunma (-2.5) | 35¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/montedio-yamagata-vs-thespa-gunma-more-markets-the-polymarket-0xf0472b72ea8a9953d1d21b5fe997a73300e0f2f19e02ae3d86bc2222f77099af |
| O/U 3.5 | 36¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/montedio-yamagata-vs-thespa-gunma-more-markets-ou-polymarket-0x68f5fbb3a2afbfa74b1d32d31d8d64b137044de765a06e409ffdb537d23fba0a |
| O/U 2.5 | 52¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/vegalta-sendai-vs-tochigi-sc-more-markets-ou-25-polymarket-0x3dd375a0ae1b653e00db208644153d1cce3139092ca7c10fd3a02b7ef735cb9a |
| Both Teams to Score | 47¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/vegalta-sendai-vs-tochigi-sc-more-markets-both-tea-polymarket-0x75a53024a4ac793c3b5dded816c587ba66276054e412875e7030468324f69f1f |
| O/U 3.5 | 41¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/vegalta-sendai-vs-tochigi-sc-more-markets-ou-35-polymarket-0xd90426e0b0905c5f3d9b9cdcaa5a010847074f3e9d2913a54dbbb6f29bb28b0d |
| O/U 1.5 | 65¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/vegalta-sendai-vs-tochigi-sc-more-markets-ou-15-polymarket-0x1d1df793744711ab891ffe155624416370bdf3fd0d4a6966d1978320fd8b7c61 |
| Montedio Yamagata (-1.5) | 29¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/montedio-yamagata-vs-thespa-gunma-more-markets-mon-polymarket-0xc6b29b6ccedb7686c8fccf7d6a8d85ec1e79beae7acd56da8e816a761267917b |
| Vegalta Sendai (-1.5) | 32¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/vegalta-sendai-vs-tochigi-sc-more-markets-vegalta-polymarket-0xc5196fc9fd5036518212481bea85da75b7b483110d528be83f2b940287eb0618 |
| Tochigi SC (-2.5) | 28¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/vegalta-sendai-vs-tochigi-sc-more-markets-tochigi-polymarket-0x6384997ab2b392c0d27825c7e82130412a886d53ca86f8095974b31d8fee2a00 |
| O/U 4.5 | 28¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/montedio-yamagata-vs-thespa-gunma-more-markets-ou-polymarket-0xf9c84381843b80450cbda142e07bc4b95e02a0a142b2a6e5c5bf3803d9f48a5a |
| Vegalta Sendai (-2.5) | 32¢ | +4pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/vegalta-sendai-vs-tochigi-sc-more-markets-vegalta-polymarket-0xe6e3ecda3176db54c10ba4d804988e5b2a3105b6c2d20f4077fd94523c395418 |
| Tochigi SC | 35¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/vegalta-sendai-vs-tochigi-sc-tochigi-sc-polymarket-0x9f9cbf8a35317ef6174114bf58520cb5ff430b07687d7f926ea747d2fab6f2fd |
| Thespa Gunma | 36¢ | +3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/montedio-yamagata-vs-thespa-gunma-thespa-gunma-polymarket-0x1003b54bfec9e8a605fa41c7bd7e8b086cc4e5c96db6d4250a16cdbf0b51e57f |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | 39 |
| 2026-05-03 | 42 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · Thespa Gunma (-1.5) +4pp 33→37¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Tochigi SC (-1.5) +4pp 33→37¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Vegalta Sendai (-2.5) +4pp 32→36¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Draw (Montedio Yamagata vs. Thespa Gunma) +3pp 37→40¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Thespa Gunma +3pp 37→40¢ · polymarket

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/thespa-gunma-vs-vegalta-sendai
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=thespa-gunma-vs-vegalta-sendai

## License

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