# Thespa Gunma vs. Yokohama FC

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 30% across 20 contracts — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/thespa-gunma-vs-yokohama-fc
Updated: 2026-05-05T09:50:31.684Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-06

## Headline

- Probability: 30% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Venue: Polymarket (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $371

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Machida Zelvia (-1.5) | 28¢ | +3pp | $191 | polymarket | /markets/fc-machida-zelvia-vs-yokohama-fmarinos-more-market-polymarket-0xeace316b41b9dae690248b38ddfa3b76f12e3376670c4810d39cc85d331b0b5c |
| Draw (FC Machida Zelvia vs. Yokohama F·Marinos) | 27¢ | −1pp | $151 | polymarket | /markets/fc-machida-zelvia-vs-yokohama-fmarinos-draw-fc-mac-polymarket-0xe986c183f53966656b15fd4edb7ac990287d87cd2822e35deb32ec16ee32e0f1 |
| O/U 4.5 | 13¢ | — | $25 | polymarket | /markets/fc-machida-zelvia-vs-yokohama-fmarinos-more-market-polymarket-0x2d1ff3b3fa076446bfd24c728f5fe9db7cc136114a04ac3af2700ad1db34fa68 |
| FC Machida Zelvia | 54¢ | +1pp | $4 | polymarket | /markets/fc-machida-zelvia-vs-yokohama-fmarinos-fc-machida-polymarket-0xfadb01e7f045fbe7275e9fa50a8a50a31649704b88049a32a0cb014cb47063e0 |
| O/U 3.5 | 34¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/montedio-yamagata-vs-thespa-gunma-more-markets-ou-polymarket-0x68f5fbb3a2afbfa74b1d32d31d8d64b137044de765a06e409ffdb537d23fba0a |
| Draw (Montedio Yamagata vs. Thespa Gunma) | 20¢ | +3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/montedio-yamagata-vs-thespa-gunma-draw-montedio-ya-polymarket-0x278ee235cb895726835eeec20b13e099114a34ea505952c76b11540b3ce8b2ff |
| Montedio Yamagata | 52¢ | +3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/montedio-yamagata-vs-thespa-gunma-montedio-yamagat-polymarket-0x16f4ac10b455aeed267b92b4a5a582c3801266d163f2efd32fe4cdb25f8432bb |
| O/U 1.5 | 67¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/montedio-yamagata-vs-thespa-gunma-more-markets-ou-polymarket-0xda0ea1b669fd6281e67c2f7debf289881de763bfb3598afef4fb3494f629f5e3 |
| Montedio Yamagata (-2.5) | 20¢ | +3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/montedio-yamagata-vs-thespa-gunma-more-markets-mon-polymarket-0xa5b295be7e5127fbd46480c52cab4823e0862b64aa3a6b6e40f1858913e0370e |
| Thespa Gunma (-1.5) | 16¢ | +4pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/montedio-yamagata-vs-thespa-gunma-more-markets-the-polymarket-0xa980d10a592f891e94f3c9e054856ca18d8b4366d3ef3083af9f2cf89e0029b1 |
| O/U 4.5 | 13¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/montedio-yamagata-vs-thespa-gunma-more-markets-ou-polymarket-0xf9c84381843b80450cbda142e07bc4b95e02a0a142b2a6e5c5bf3803d9f48a5a |
| Thespa Gunma (-2.5) | 16¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/montedio-yamagata-vs-thespa-gunma-more-markets-the-polymarket-0xf0472b72ea8a9953d1d21b5fe997a73300e0f2f19e02ae3d86bc2222f77099af |
| Both Teams to Score | 52¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/montedio-yamagata-vs-thespa-gunma-more-markets-bot-polymarket-0xd6d00ce85db87360ad28c70342a8f2b87d703ebe7a319dca09821a11ab48a2e5 |
| Thespa Gunma | 19¢ | +3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/montedio-yamagata-vs-thespa-gunma-thespa-gunma-polymarket-0x1003b54bfec9e8a605fa41c7bd7e8b086cc4e5c96db6d4250a16cdbf0b51e57f |
| Montedio Yamagata (-1.5) | 22¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/montedio-yamagata-vs-thespa-gunma-more-markets-mon-polymarket-0xc6b29b6ccedb7686c8fccf7d6a8d85ec1e79beae7acd56da8e816a761267917b |
| O/U 2.5 | 50¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/montedio-yamagata-vs-thespa-gunma-more-markets-ou-polymarket-0xc26872899f3bb280f768daa4b24340eefcd3e924616c27e97fe754db78535101 |
| O/U 3.5 | 26¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/fc-machida-zelvia-vs-yokohama-fmarinos-more-market-polymarket-0x370751f97151c1dba8a99a75e06a4b64f63102fc30f33f53f88590aa42a2ca9a |
| O/U 2.5 | 51¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/tochigi-city-fc-vs-yokohama-fc-more-markets-ou-25-polymarket-0xd165f0be07f5e0f8d9c9531860a4288aa0971cf6dcfa9f6f3666f8f7277681c8 |
| Yokohama F·Marinos (-2.5) | 6¢ | +3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/fc-machida-zelvia-vs-yokohama-fmarinos-more-market-polymarket-0x91f635f47aac21a126bfa229b83dc8da2b7fb03b89bcf60c832da1e2848161e3 |
| Draw (Tochigi City FC vs. Yokohama FC) | 23¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/tochigi-city-fc-vs-yokohama-fc-draw-tochigi-city-f-polymarket-0x9bdcef6177d296ce1897be117ec4e35ffaf308bedd44c03b24235d1598e8cc6a |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | 37 |
| 2026-05-02 | 38 |
| 2026-05-03 | 41 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · Thespa Gunma (-1.5) +4pp 33→37¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · FC Machida Zelvia (-1.5) +3pp 32→35¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Draw (Montedio Yamagata vs. Thespa Gunma) +3pp 37→40¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Montedio Yamagata +3pp 44→47¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Montedio Yamagata (-2.5) +3pp 33→36¢ · polymarket

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/thespa-gunma-vs-yokohama-fc
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=thespa-gunma-vs-yokohama-fc

## License

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