# Will Clarence Thomas announce their departure as Supreme Court justice before Jan 1, 2027

> Before Jan 1, 2028 leads at 32%, runner-up 11% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 8 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/thomasannounceretire-26jul
Updated: 2026-08-09T22:20:51.847Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2028-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: Before Jan 1, 2028 at 32%
- Runner-up: Before Jul 1, 2027 at 11%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | 32¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-clarence-thomas-announce-their-departure-as-s-kalshi-kxthomasannounceretire-26jul-28jan01 |
| Before Jul 1, 2027 | 11¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-clarence-thomas-announce-their-departure-as-s-kalshi-kxthomasannounceretire-26jul-27jul01 |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 4¢ | −4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-clarence-thomas-announce-their-departure-as-s-kalshi-kxthomasannounceretire-26jul-27jan01 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Before Jan 1, 2028 | Before Jul 1, 2027 | Before Jan 1, 2027 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-27 | 40 | 30 | 10 |
| 2026-08-01 | — | 18 | 8 |
| 2026-08-02 | 29 | 12 | 8 |
| 2026-08-03 | 31 | 12 | 4 |
| 2026-08-09 | 32 | — | — |

_12 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-02 · Before Jan 1, 2028 −11pp 40→29¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-02 · Before Jul 1, 2027 −6pp 18→12¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-03 · Before Jan 1, 2027 −4pp 8→4¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This reflects a 40% probability that Justice Clarence Thomas will publicly announce his resignation before January 1, 2028. The market is pricing in uncertainty around Thomas's health and potential retirement timeline. At 83, Thomas is the Court's oldest member; health developments or major life changes would significantly shift expectations. Recent Supreme Court term conclusions and congressional leadership transitions could influence retirement timing decisions. The key catalyst will be any public statements from Thomas, his family, or Court insiders regarding his future plans, along with observable changes in his docket participation or health status over the coming months.

### Key factors

- Thomas is 83 years old with a history of health issues; medical events or public health disclosures could materially shift retirement probability
- Market pricing shows higher conviction for departure before Jan 1, 2028 (40%) versus before Jan 1, 2027 (11%), suggesting traders expect departure is more likely mid-2027 or later if it occurs
- Control of the presidency and Senate affects strategic retirement timing; the current political environment influences when justices choose to announce departures
- Thomas has not signaled imminent retirement publicly; absence of health crises or explicit statements keeps near-term probabilities relatively low
- Historical precedent shows justices typically announce departures months in advance; sudden announcements are uncommon

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/thomasannounceretire-26jul
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=thomasannounceretire-26jul

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.