# Will TikTok be banned in the US?

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 36% across 7 contracts — refreshed 51 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/tiktok-ban
Updated: 2026-06-08T05:20:11.670Z
Category: legislation
Status: active
Closes: 2028-01-01

## Headline

- Probability: 36% (liquidity-weighted across 7 contracts)
- Cross-venue: Kalshi 23% / Polymarket 41% — 18pp spread
- 24h volume: $3

## Bound contracts (7)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nvidia | 18¢ | −1pp | $3 | polymarket | /markets/which-companies-will-the-us-take-a-stake-in-nvidia-polymarket-0xf86df821bd41f20c0b67674bfc03a7db9408bc336103ffdf9675cb8e313797f1 |
| Before 2028 | 43¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-ban-on-supersonic-flight-over-land-end-be-kalshi-kxsupersonic-28 |
| Yes | 3¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/us-bans-social-media-for-children-before-2027-yes-kalshi-kxsocialmediaban-27jan01 |
| TikTok US / Bytedance | 33¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-companies-will-the-us-take-a-stake-in-tiktok-polymarket-0xe61206a9db350886fbc62f56da9b6f7343a931b9e609038c486e9048aac1246c |
| Anduril | 56¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-companies-will-the-us-take-a-stake-in-anduri-polymarket-0x11c846106277b0b0eccd71a5c7297073c646bf5a19a8ef92b2f9305e97e2be38 |
| Rigetti | 81¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-companies-will-the-us-take-a-stake-in-rigett-polymarket-0xf179f57bcd9d754aee6245c7816d523f3dabcd476e6f26c4b9f6cd8108e72a9f |
| Samsung Electronics | 19¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-companies-will-the-us-take-a-stake-in-samsun-polymarket-0xbabf4d97e342229baf65bfb0d7127c09a5bec0d76a7beb49bc47b1d9cf5c4091 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 26 |
| 2026-05-25 | 39 |
| 2026-06-01 | 49 |
| 2026-06-08 | 39 |

_31 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-07 · TikTok US / Bytedance −21pp 47→26¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-07 · Rigetti −10pp 90→80¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-01 · TikTok US / Bytedance +7pp 41→48¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-04 · Nvidia +4pp 14→18¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-02 · TikTok US / Bytedance −4pp 48→44¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

Prediction markets currently assign near-zero probability to any major tech company acquiring TikTok. While the U.S. government has pursued divestiture efforts, market participants essentially see no likelihood that Microsoft, Meta, Elon Musk, or Walmart will purchase the platform.

### Key factors

- No buyer interest from major tech firms
- Near-zero market implied acquisition probability
- Ongoing U.S. regulatory scrutiny
- Broad geopolitical and antitrust headwinds

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/tiktok-ban
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=tiktok-ban

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.