# Will Tim Walz resign by...

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 11% across 1 contract — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/tim-walz-resign
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:50:43.791Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Probability: 11% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $202

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before 2027 | 11¢ | −1pp | $202 | polymarket | /markets/will-tim-walz-resign-by-before-2027-polymarket-0x46a62442a96f6b6aec25b369d6dee763aaa5c47dc7d3750ad1ed0a6039ba63bb |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-10 | 9 |
| 2026-04-28 | 30 |
| 2026-05-01 | 12 |
| 2026-05-07 | 11 |

_11 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This prediction estimates a 12% chance that Minnesota Governor Tim Walz will resign before a specified date. Walz assumed the vice presidency under President Biden in 2025, creating a potential conflict with his gubernatorial duties. The low probability reflects the rarity of sitting governors resigning from office and the absence of public signals suggesting imminent departure. The main factors determining this outcome would be either unprecedented political circumstances forcing his hand or unforeseen personal or health-related circumstances. The resolution depends on whether Walz formally vacates the governorship before the deadline, which would likely be announced publicly by state officials.

### Key factors

- Walz has maintained dual roles as VP and governor since 2025 without publicly indicating plans to resign
- No sitting US vice president has resigned from a governorship in modern political history
- Minnesota's succession rules and lieutenant governor structure would activate automatically upon resignation
- Any resignation would require formal notice to state authorities and would be immediately verifiable through official state records
- Unexpected personal circumstances, legal issues, or major political shifts could alter the baseline expectation

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/tim-walz-resign
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=tim-walz-resign

## License

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