# Who will Time name as Person of the Decade

> Elon Musk leads at 30%, runner-up 12% across 6 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/timedecade20s
Updated: 2026-05-03T15:20:56.393Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2030-01-31

## Headline

- Leader: Elon Musk at 30%
- Runner-up: Taylor Swift at 12%
- Outcomes: 6 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $605

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elon Musk | 30¢ | +2pp | $103 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-time-name-as-person-of-the-decade-elon-mu-kalshi-kxtimedecade20s-30-emus |
| Taylor Swift | 12¢ | +2pp | $502 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-time-name-as-person-of-the-decade-taylor-kalshi-kxtimedecade20s-30-tay |
| Sam Altman | 8¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-time-name-as-person-of-the-decade-sam-alt-kalshi-kxtimedecade20s-30-salt |
| Volodymyr Zelenskyy | 7¢ | −4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-time-name-as-person-of-the-decade-volodym-kalshi-kxtimedecade20s-30-vzel |
| Xi Jinping | 6¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-time-name-as-person-of-the-decade-xi-jinp-kalshi-kxtimedecade20s-30-xjin |
| Jensen Huang | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-time-name-as-person-of-the-decade-jensen-kalshi-kxtimedecade20s-30-jhua |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Elon Musk | Taylor Swift | Sam Altman |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | — | — | 9 |
| 2026-04-09 | 28 | — | 9 |
| 2026-04-22 | 31 | — | — |
| 2026-04-24 | 30 | 13 | — |
| 2026-04-26 | 29 | 13 | — |
| 2026-05-02 | 30 | 12 | — |
| 2026-05-03 | — | 14 | — |

_14 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-04-26 · Volodymyr Zelenskyy −4pp 11→7¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This 30% probability reflects market participants' assessment that an AI-related entity or concept will be selected as Time's Person of the Decade when the magazine makes this selection (likely in late 2029 or early 2030). The probability is being driven primarily by AI's rapid advancement and cultural prominence in 2024-2026, though the specific designation remains uncertain. A runner-up outcome sits at 13%, indicating significant fragmentation across alternative outcomes. The main factors depressing the full probability are uncertainty about whether Time will choose a person, organization, or concept; the unpredictable editorial preferences of Time's selection committee; and competition from major political figures and other potential contenders. Resolution will occur when Time officially announces its Person of the Decade selection, likely at year-end 2029 or in early 2030, at which point the market will settle definitively.

### Key factors

- The leading outcome prices AI at 30¢, while the runner-up is at 13¢, indicating significant market uncertainty and a fragmented field of potential winners
- Donald Trump trades at 26¢, making him the second-highest individual person within this market, suggesting political figures remain credible contenders
- The five most liquid contracts (AI, Trump, Zohran Mamdani, Pope Leo XIV, and others) collectively represent a minority of the probability space, with remaining outcomes distributed across other unspecified candidates
- Time's selection criteria and editorial judgment are not mechanically determined by any public metric, creating irreducible uncertainty for all participants
- Resolution is approximately 3-4 years away, allowing substantial shifts in global circumstances that could favor different outcome categories

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/timedecade20s
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=timedecade20s

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.