# Tōkyō Verdy vs. Kashima Antlers

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 32% across 20 contracts — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/tky-verdy-vs-kashima-antlers
Updated: 2026-05-03T14:05:23.215Z
Category: general
Status: active

## Headline

- Probability: 32% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Venue: Polymarket (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $10

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tōkyō Verdy (-1.5) | 9¢ | −2pp | $10 | polymarket | /markets/kawasaki-frontale-vs-tky-verdy-more-markets-tky-ve-polymarket-0x2ae2ebd1fd8f36dee4140d1e5d50addade8319b01b9486d126f98e2e54d468c8 |
| FC Mito Holly Hock | 17¢ | −2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kashima-antlers-vs-fc-mito-holly-hock-fc-mito-holl-polymarket-0x7c2edc081c32d05d1211b6e4733f57cf9f4993b2aff68bc1771396191ccb941e |
| Draw (Kawasaki Frontale vs. Tōkyō Verdy) | 28¢ | −2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kawasaki-frontale-vs-tky-verdy-draw-kawasaki-front-polymarket-0xae4b3d92dfbf729d1d1c4e1417dcc15eba5b50e062470235a681be0ac0768744 |
| Kawasaki Frontale (-1.5) | 23¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kawasaki-frontale-vs-tky-verdy-more-markets-kawasa-polymarket-0x8de3ff056585d51097fd2482a4abc6cc83fb7dbe11744f648315460fa6d355c6 |
| O/U 4.5 | 12¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kashima-antlers-vs-fc-mito-holly-hock-more-markets-polymarket-0xd385a34c7caf9fbdeb78e6a6a1fbf2a3bb9d25bb3581d7a15f5a72c5cb8717a7 |
| Tōkyō Verdy | 27¢ | −4pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kawasaki-frontale-vs-tky-verdy-tky-verdy-polymarket-0x3d1c1d96948fe74dd5074638764492911ae0a05448b827f9f17d12d6a4cbae22 |
| O/U 4.5 | 14¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kawasaki-frontale-vs-tky-verdy-more-markets-ou-45-polymarket-0x90099fd2923ed9ff2403ac27e3e1e34094d86bb0a7c3c6bef9df63463973118b |
| Both Teams to Score | 59¢ | +3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kawasaki-frontale-vs-tky-verdy-more-markets-both-t-polymarket-0x635cbd45d09e8508967adabadf4b446a1cc0ab5162c74cdcf3b11c617cd04f96 |
| FC Mito Holly Hock (-1.5) | 11¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kashima-antlers-vs-fc-mito-holly-hock-more-markets-polymarket-0x016905fd905ab6ebd041201e664fb909026be7f8d9f37567497caa7e2333b20d |
| Kashima Antlers (-2.5) | 14¢ | +4pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kashima-antlers-vs-fc-mito-holly-hock-more-markets-polymarket-0x6b096c2df5914dbbc26c254de76cb2bc7898d91c9fe76d92fc6bf32a7a673965 |
| O/U 3.5 | 25¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kashima-antlers-vs-fc-mito-holly-hock-more-markets-polymarket-0x0810840cd496f74e46af48757e2488c91261f35690040c1d2248f26ca3d55e13 |
| Kashima Antlers | 57¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kashima-antlers-vs-fc-mito-holly-hock-kashima-antl-polymarket-0xda16f5f99ab000e90be082a66bf91d4760d73eea2dac3b46cced139158573b65 |
| Draw (Kashima Antlers vs. FC Mito Holly Hock) | 25¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kashima-antlers-vs-fc-mito-holly-hock-draw-kashima-polymarket-0x701ae45ef836a011a58e97f75432565c982eabf04e31b4aaa37c9e77492adfa5 |
| Tōkyō Verdy (-2.5) | 10¢ | −6pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kawasaki-frontale-vs-tky-verdy-more-markets-tky-ve-polymarket-0xe158bdcc299fae5f1b1c38a92c8eabb46f489427326e54d21b59bd361a840a3d |
| O/U 1.5 | 72¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kashima-antlers-vs-fc-mito-holly-hock-more-markets-polymarket-0x9a04eb7c5d4b3411c6443be32b0e6c6584cf135d0c4995fc06f4e35889dcc058 |
| O/U 2.5 | 46¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kashima-antlers-vs-fc-mito-holly-hock-more-markets-polymarket-0x0020fda47604a2d66ffa8e2f9dfaa9a358f4a179d9375a06adca1a6efb5bfde4 |
| O/U 1.5 | 72¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kawasaki-frontale-vs-tky-verdy-more-markets-ou-15-polymarket-0xc50831975e60b6665a0c4062af1d08ceeaf968a69b38978bf57dae0e90dcdfa0 |
| O/U 2.5 | 47¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kawasaki-frontale-vs-tky-verdy-more-markets-ou-25-polymarket-0x5a0c7816ae6badc971ddcefefba8eba7b44cb32f8f3d31a0a10a1f11af997648 |
| Kawasaki Frontale | 48¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kawasaki-frontale-vs-tky-verdy-kawasaki-frontale-polymarket-0x5d662aad6811ae102961c08d7234cd8225aa5c3973ee6807090520d1c474c279 |
| Kawasaki Frontale (-2.5) | 14¢ | −4pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kawasaki-frontale-vs-tky-verdy-more-markets-kawasa-polymarket-0x3c1aa9a80edc6b086428b47577745380ec14a6a5fc83d1baf4197ee6a305576e |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | 36 |
| 2026-05-02 | 36 |
| 2026-05-03 | 38 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · Tōkyō Verdy (-2.5) −6pp 34→28¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Tōkyō Verdy −4pp 33→29¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Kashima Antlers (-2.5) +4pp 32→36¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Kawasaki Frontale (-2.5) −4pp 33→29¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Both Teams to Score +3pp 53→56¢ · polymarket

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

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## License

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