# Tōkyō Verdy vs. Kashiwa Reysol

> Closed. Last odds frozen 1 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/tky-verdy-vs-kashiwa-reysol
Updated: 2026-05-07T06:35:43.886Z
Category: general
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-05-06

## Headline

- Probability: 29% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Venue: Polymarket (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $2K

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kawasaki Frontale | 47¢ | +8pp | $650 | polymarket | /markets/kawasaki-frontale-vs-tky-verdy-kawasaki-frontale-polymarket-0x5d662aad6811ae102961c08d7234cd8225aa5c3973ee6807090520d1c474c279 |
| Tōkyō Verdy (-1.5) | 9¢ | −20pp | $384 | polymarket | /markets/kawasaki-frontale-vs-tky-verdy-more-markets-tky-ve-polymarket-0x2ae2ebd1fd8f36dee4140d1e5d50addade8319b01b9486d126f98e2e54d468c8 |
| Both Teams to Score | 53¢ | −25pp | $333 | polymarket | /markets/kawasaki-frontale-vs-tky-verdy-more-markets-both-t-polymarket-0x635cbd45d09e8508967adabadf4b446a1cc0ab5162c74cdcf3b11c617cd04f96 |
| O/U 2.5 | 48¢ | −16pp | $313 | polymarket | /markets/kashiwa-reysol-vs-urawa-red-diamonds-more-markets-polymarket-0x137a07a40c862c48fa20e4bf0903615799188d89173bc6a02ef8f36908f75c60 |
| O/U 2.5 | 47¢ | −18pp | $173 | polymarket | /markets/kawasaki-frontale-vs-tky-verdy-more-markets-ou-25-polymarket-0x5a0c7816ae6badc971ddcefefba8eba7b44cb32f8f3d31a0a10a1f11af997648 |
| Kashiwa Reysol | 43¢ | −15pp | $168 | polymarket | /markets/kashiwa-reysol-vs-urawa-red-diamonds-kashiwa-reyso-polymarket-0x3481b3be832eae49ff416e4730a50ec37ee10928a54e55e58a4f73d080267cd2 |
| O/U 3.5 | 26¢ | −8pp | $164 | polymarket | /markets/kashiwa-reysol-vs-urawa-red-diamonds-more-markets-polymarket-0x1ae4fa2b0e1cebe32000a741ec07dc113ec3cbc71d668d9f2ebf47f090557485 |
| Draw (Kawasaki Frontale vs. Tōkyō Verdy) | 28¢ | +1pp | $120 | polymarket | /markets/kawasaki-frontale-vs-tky-verdy-draw-kawasaki-front-polymarket-0xae4b3d92dfbf729d1d1c4e1417dcc15eba5b50e062470235a681be0ac0768744 |
| Draw (Kashiwa Reysol vs. Urawa Red Diamonds) | 28¢ | −5pp | $98 | polymarket | /markets/kashiwa-reysol-vs-urawa-red-diamonds-draw-kashiwa-polymarket-0xbb1d85c0653835874de6ae3e0cd7911ea44b6062031b0280882f1f94a820f498 |
| O/U 1.5 | 74¢ | −30pp | $56 | polymarket | /markets/kawasaki-frontale-vs-tky-verdy-more-markets-ou-15-polymarket-0xc50831975e60b6665a0c4062af1d08ceeaf968a69b38978bf57dae0e90dcdfa0 |
| Tōkyō Verdy (-2.5) | 4¢ | −18pp | $4 | polymarket | /markets/kawasaki-frontale-vs-tky-verdy-more-markets-tky-ve-polymarket-0xe158bdcc299fae5f1b1c38a92c8eabb46f489427326e54d21b59bd361a840a3d |
| O/U 1.5 | 73¢ | −11pp | $4 | polymarket | /markets/kashiwa-reysol-vs-urawa-red-diamonds-more-markets-polymarket-0xde55263f4843ff39efeba08884e6e92b2af80fddf4ce93586dc5b12736b29dbc |
| Kawasaki Frontale (-1.5) | 23¢ | −14pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kawasaki-frontale-vs-tky-verdy-more-markets-kawasa-polymarket-0x8de3ff056585d51097fd2482a4abc6cc83fb7dbe11744f648315460fa6d355c6 |
| Kashiwa Reysol (-2.5) | 8¢ | −19pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kashiwa-reysol-vs-urawa-red-diamonds-more-markets-polymarket-0xadcf744a9640a6e377fe9053eb64b43a37dba200eb2040bcd1e199d9e34df821 |
| Urawa Red Diamonds (-2.5) | 5¢ | −12pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kashiwa-reysol-vs-urawa-red-diamonds-more-markets-polymarket-0xc60a6d5f37835d039139ee7a805003c7133a8aeb3a9aeb4c1c0175e32981d8a2 |
| O/U 4.5 | 12¢ | −4pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kashiwa-reysol-vs-urawa-red-diamonds-more-markets-polymarket-0x8c771d9b5ed14085fc1ecfaa14fc44e10b34e74333cd7ee161efeb124e340d08 |
| Kashiwa Reysol (-1.5) | 20¢ | −14pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kashiwa-reysol-vs-urawa-red-diamonds-more-markets-polymarket-0x13fca10ff23581e6dd606f11f66f4c391c6466503af462fce73756afe0c09be2 |
| O/U 4.5 | 13¢ | −21pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kawasaki-frontale-vs-tky-verdy-more-markets-ou-45-polymarket-0x90099fd2923ed9ff2403ac27e3e1e34094d86bb0a7c3c6bef9df63463973118b |
| Urawa Red Diamonds (-1.5) | 11¢ | −13pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kashiwa-reysol-vs-urawa-red-diamonds-more-markets-polymarket-0xf874fea23e2749a660cf3f2d2f1b359d0e892dad6460eba65a6fb5b54c532d7f |
| Kawasaki Frontale (-2.5) | 8¢ | −21pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kawasaki-frontale-vs-tky-verdy-more-markets-kawasa-polymarket-0x3c1aa9a80edc6b086428b47577745380ec14a6a5fc83d1baf4197ee6a305576e |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | 38 |
| 2026-05-02 | 37 |
| 2026-05-03 | 37 |
| 2026-05-06 | 23 |

_4 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · O/U 1.5 −30pp 73→43¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Both Teams to Score −25pp 56→31¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · O/U 4.5 −21pp 29→8¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Kawasaki Frontale (-2.5) −21pp 29→8¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Tōkyō Verdy (-1.5) −20pp 26→6¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This probability reflects the likelihood that Tōkyō Verdy will defeat Kashiwa Reysol in an upcoming match. At 29%, the market assigns Verdy slightly worse odds than a typical underdog, suggesting Kashiwa is favored. The current level reflects recent team form, head-to-head records, and home-field advantage considerations. The probability would move higher if Verdy wins their next few matches or Kashiwa suffers key injuries; it would decline if Kashiwa extends their winning streak or Verdy loses upcoming fixtures. The scheduled match date itself represents the primary catalyst that will resolve this uncertainty—until kickoff, the outcome remains contingent on team conditions, weather, and tactical adjustments leading into the contest.

### Key factors

- Recent league performance and points total for both teams in the current J-League season
- Head-to-head historical record between Tōkyō Verdy and Kashiwa Reysol over the past 3-5 seasons
- Whether the match is played at Verdy's or Kashiwa's home stadium, and each team's home/away win rates
- Availability of key players due to injury, suspension, or international callups before the scheduled date
- Current goal differential, defensive record, and offensive output trends for both squads

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/tky-verdy-vs-kashiwa-reysol
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=tky-verdy-vs-kashiwa-reysol

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.