# TN-09 Democratic Primary Winner

> Steve Cohen leads at 41%, runner-up 39% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/tn09-democratic-primary-winner
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:50:40.196Z
Category: general · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2026-08-06

## Headline

- Leader: Steve Cohen at 41%
- Runner-up: Justin Pearson at 39%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $78

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Cohen | 41¢ | −2pp | $24 | polymarket | /markets/tn-09-democratic-primary-winner-steve-cohen-polymarket-0x90b3a63203c32bc263c308ed8aabd6114db4cd1c9817e8a9bc9245074dd00157 |
| Justin Pearson | 39¢ | +4pp | $39 | polymarket | /markets/tn-09-democratic-primary-winner-justin-pearson-polymarket-0x6f2580e9ed1a2d48bc76cce406b9554c5f6d2c767b516d53b14c5f39ba1afee8 |
| DeVante Hill | 33¢ | +2pp | $15 | polymarket | /markets/tn-09-democratic-primary-winner-devante-hill-polymarket-0x91e357c68dc6fb645c63b58eb062033943c6b7ca70dc0144a0e417e7c7587505 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Steve Cohen | Justin Pearson | DeVante Hill |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 57 | 42 | 6 |
| 2026-04-25 | 57 | 40 | 3 |
| 2026-05-02 | 40 | 46 | 15 |
| 2026-05-09 | 39 | 40 | 32 |

_29 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-08 · DeVante Hill +17pp 13→30¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · Justin Pearson −9pp 48→39¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Justin Pearson +6pp 46→52¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Steve Cohen +5pp 40→45¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · DeVante Hill −5pp 15→10¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This probability reflects market estimates of the likelihood that a specific candidate wins the Tennessee 9th District Democratic primary. The 50% price for the leading candidate indicates meaningful uncertainty about the outcome, with the runner-up at 46% suggesting a competitive race. Primary winners depend on candidate fundraising, voter turnout patterns in the district, endorsement dynamics, and polling accuracy in the weeks leading to the election. The primary election date itself represents the key catalyst that will resolve this market, after which actual vote totals replace speculation. Market participants are pricing in the possibility of a narrow outcome or potential surprises given the close polling between frontrunners.

### Key factors

- Relative fundraising totals and cash-on-hand for leading candidates in the district as of FEC reporting deadlines
- Recent district-specific polling or internal campaign surveys showing vote share trends within 4-6 weeks of primary day
- Endorsement patterns from local party officials, union leaders, or other organizational validators that may influence late-decider voters
- Voter turnout projections by demographic group, since Democratic primary outcomes can shift significantly with varying turnout assumptions
- Historical accuracy of previous predictions for this district's Democratic primary electorate composition

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/tn09-democratic-primary-winner
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=tn09-democratic-primary-winner
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.