# Will Greg win the TNC x FST 1v1 between Greg and HoodieQel

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 23% across 7 contracts — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/tncbasketball
Updated: 2026-05-09T07:20:26.368Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2028-06-29

## Headline

- Probability: 23% (liquidity-weighted across 7 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (7 contracts)
- 24h volume: $1.4M

## Bound contracts (7)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York | 11¢ | +1pp | $585K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-new-york-win-the-2026-pro-basketball-fina-kalshi-kxnba-26-nyk |
| Oklahoma City | 60¢ | −1pp | $261K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-oklahoma-city-win-the-2026-pro-basketball-kalshi-kxnba-26-okc |
| San Antonio | 21¢ | +1pp | $218K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-san-antonio-win-the-2026-pro-basketball-f-kalshi-kxnba-26-sas |
| Detroit | 6¢ | +1pp | $197K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-detroit-win-the-2026-pro-basketball-final-kalshi-kxnba-26-det |
| New York | 55¢ | +5pp | $149K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-new-york-win-the-2026-pro-basketball-east-kalshi-kxnbaeast-26-nyk |
| Greg Rousseau | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-greg-rousseau-win-the-defensive-player-of-the-kalshi-kxnfldpoty-27-grou |
| Gregory Soto | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-gregory-soto-win-nl-reliever-of-the-year-greg-kalshi-kxmlbnlreloty-26-gsot |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 42 |
| 2026-04-25 | 20 |
| 2026-05-02 | 26 |
| 2026-05-09 | 36 |

_29 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · New York +11pp 36→47¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · New York +9pp 27→36¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · San Antonio −6pp 22→16¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-09 · New York +5pp 48→53¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · Oklahoma City +4pp 57→61¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability indicates a 19% chance that Greg defeats HoodieQel in a planned 1v1 competition organized by TNC and FST. The low probability suggests HoodieQel is favored based on either previous head-to-head results, relative skill assessments, or historical performance data available to market participants. The outcome will be determined by the actual match result, which would depend on factors such as both competitors' recent form, any rule specifications affecting gameplay, and performance conditions at the time of competition. Market movement could shift if new information emerges about either competitor's preparation, injuries, or changes in tournament format.

### Key factors

- Historical head-to-head record between Greg and HoodieQel in similar competitions or formats
- Recent performance metrics or rankings for both competitors relative to their typical competition level
- Specific tournament or match rules that may favor one competitor's playstyle over the other
- Any publicly disclosed information about either competitor's current training status or recent results
- Scheduled date and venue for the match, as conditions may advantage particular competitors

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/tncbasketball
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=tncbasketball

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.