# Will the yield of 10-year U.S. treasury notes be between 4.47 and 4.49 on Apr 24, 2026

> 4.4% to 4.42% leads at 17%, runner-up 16% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 d ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/tnotew
Updated: 2026-05-08T04:05:36.127Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-08

## Headline

- Leader: 4.4% to 4.42% at 17%
- Runner-up: 4.37% to 4.39% at 16%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $16

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.4% to 4.42% | 17¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-yield-of-10-year-us-treasury-notes-be-bet-kalshi-kxtnotew-26may08-b4.41 |
| 4.37% to 4.39% | 16¢ | +9pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-yield-of-10-year-us-treasury-notes-be-bet-kalshi-kxtnotew-26may08-b4.38 |
| 4.46% to 4.48% | 3¢ | −2pp | $16 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-yield-of-10-year-us-treasury-notes-be-bet-kalshi-kxtnotew-26may08-b4.47 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | 4.4% to 4.42% | 4.37% to 4.39% | 4.46% to 4.48% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | 2 | 2 | — |
| 2026-05-02 | — | 3 | — |
| 2026-05-03 | — | 3 | — |
| 2026-05-06 | 6 | 10 | 7 |
| 2026-05-07 | 17 | 19 | 5 |
| 2026-05-08 | 17 | — | 3 |

_6 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-07 · 4.4% to 4.42% +11pp 6→17¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-07 · 4.37% to 4.39% +9pp 10→19¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · 4.37% to 4.39% +7pp 3→10¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · 4.4% to 4.42% +4pp 2→6¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/tnotew
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=tnotew

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.