# Will Van Hilleary be the Republican nominee for TN-06

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 61% across 11 contracts — refreshed 23 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/tnprimary
Updated: 2026-05-28T20:20:09.933Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2027-11-03

## Headline

- Probability: 61% (liquidity-weighted across 11 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (11 contracts)
- 24h volume: $189

## Bound contracts (11)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Pearson | 81¢ | −5pp | $114 | kalshi | /markets/will-justin-pearson-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-kalshi-kxtnprimary-09d26-jpea |
| Mike Cortese | 72¢ | +1pp | $19 | kalshi | /markets/will-mike-cortese-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-tn-kalshi-kxtnprimary-04d26-mcor |
| Brent Taylor | 73¢ | +1pp | $18 | kalshi | /markets/will-brent-taylor-be-the-republican-nominee-for-tn-kalshi-kxtnprimary-09r26-btay |
| Scott DesJarlais | 92¢ | +1pp | $15 | kalshi | /markets/will-scott-desjarlais-be-the-republican-nominee-fo-kalshi-kxtnprimary-04r26-sdes |
| Kristi Burke | 62¢ | +1pp | $8 | kalshi | /markets/will-kristi-burke-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-tn-kalshi-kxtnprimary-01d26-kbur |
| Lore Bergman | 75¢ | ±0 | $5 | kalshi | /markets/will-lore-bergman-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-tn-kalshi-kxtnprimary-06d26-lber |
| Anna Golladay | 73¢ | +2pp | $5 | kalshi | /markets/will-anna-golladay-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-t-kalshi-kxtnprimary-03d26-agol |
| Vincent Dixie | 72¢ | −13pp | $5 | kalshi | /markets/will-vincent-dixie-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-t-kalshi-kxtnprimary-07d26-vdix |
| David Kerr | 31¢ | −7pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-david-kerr-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-tn-0-kalshi-kxtnprimary-01d26-dker |
| Bryan Martin | 21¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-bryan-martin-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-tn-kalshi-kxtnprimary-03d26-bmar |
| Victoria Broderick | 21¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-victoria-broderick-be-the-democratic-nominee-kalshi-kxtnprimary-04d26-vbro |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | 39 |
| 2026-05-14 | 41 |
| 2026-05-21 | 49 |
| 2026-05-28 | 6 |

_20 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-26 · Kristi Burke −56pp 60→4¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-24 · Anna Golladay −56pp 75→19¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-21 · Anna Golladay +42pp 36→78¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-21 · Mike Cortese +18pp 38→56¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-24 · Bryan Martin −14pp 25→11¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This contract represents the likelihood that Van Hilleary will secure the Republican nomination for Tennessee's 6th congressional district. At 27%, the market is pricing Hilleary as a significant contender but not the front-runner, suggesting meaningful uncertainty about the primary outcome. The nomination probability reflects factors such as candidate name recognition, fundraising capacity, endorsement patterns, and primary field strength. The market's assessment would likely shift based on polling data from the district, campaign finance reports showing spending and donor support, and any major endorsements or candidate exits that reshape the competitive landscape. The primary election date and any preceding debates or campaign events would serve as key catalysts that could materially move this probability as voters get closer to their final decisions.

### Key factors

- Candidate fundraising totals and cash-on-hand relative to other Republican primary competitors in TN-06
- Primary election date and timing of early voting, debates, or other campaign events that crystallize voter preferences
- Polling data or internal surveys showing Hilleary's standing among likely Republican primary voters in the district
- Endorsements from significant party figures, elected officials, or organizational groups in Tennessee
- Number of competing Republican candidates in the primary and their respective campaign viability

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/tnprimary
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=tnprimary
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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