# Will Felix launch a token before Jan 1, 2027

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 27% across 14 contracts — refreshed 53 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/tokenlaunch
Updated: 2026-06-26T03:20:49.198Z
Category: crypto
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Probability: 27% (liquidity-weighted across 14 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (14 contracts)
- 24h volume: $9

## Bound contracts (14)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ostium | 46¢ | +1pp | $9 | kalshi | /markets/will-ostium-launch-a-token-before-jan-1-2027-ostiu-kalshi-kxtokenlaunch-27jan01-osti |
| Abstract | 21¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-abstract-launch-a-token-before-jan-1-2027-abs-kalshi-kxtokenlaunch-27jan01-abst |
| Arc | 56¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-arc-launch-a-token-before-jan-1-2027-arc-kalshi-kxtokenlaunch-27jan01-arc |
| Base | 26¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-base-launch-a-token-before-jan-1-2027-base-kalshi-kxtokenlaunch-27jan01-base |
| CME Group | 19¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-cme-group-launch-a-token-before-jan-1-2027-cm-kalshi-kxtokenlaunch-27jan01-cme |
| Exponent | 27¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-exponent-launch-a-token-before-jan-1-2027-exp-kalshi-kxtokenlaunch-27jan01-expo |
| Felix | 43¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-felix-launch-a-token-before-jan-1-2027-felix-kalshi-kxtokenlaunch-27jan01-feli |
| Fomo | 16¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-fomo-launch-a-token-before-jan-1-2027-fomo-kalshi-kxtokenlaunch-27jan01-fomo |
| MetaMask | 24¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-metamask-launch-a-token-before-jan-1-2027-met-kalshi-kxtokenlaunch-27jan01-meta |
| OpenSea | 37¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-opensea-launch-a-token-before-jan-1-2027-open-kalshi-kxtokenlaunch-27jan01-open |
| Phantom | 9¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-phantom-launch-a-token-before-jan-1-2027-phan-kalshi-kxtokenlaunch-27jan01-phan |
| Rabby | 19¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-rabby-launch-a-token-before-jan-1-2027-rabby-kalshi-kxtokenlaunch-27jan01-rabb |
| Tempo | 18¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-tempo-launch-a-token-before-jan-1-2027-tempo-kalshi-kxtokenlaunch-27jan01-tempo |
| Unit | 10¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-unit-launch-a-token-before-jan-1-2027-unit-kalshi-kxtokenlaunch-27jan01-unit |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | 49 |
| 2026-06-12 | 46 |
| 2026-06-19 | 36 |
| 2026-06-25 | 42 |

_29 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-22 · Rabby −4pp 22→18¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects the market's view that Felix (a blockchain platform or project) has a 36% chance of launching its own token before the year ends. The current level suggests meaningful uncertainty about both Felix's timeline and the regulatory environment. Two factors appear to drive the probability: first, the recent regulatory clarity around token launches (particularly the SAVE Act's prospects, trading at 9¢ despite expected passage), which could either accelerate or delay projects; second, comparable projects' timelines—Arc is priced at 50¢ for a pre-2027 token launch, while Base's token remains highly unlikely (3¢) despite pressure from competitors. The most immediate uncertainty driver is whether Felix announces a token launch window in the next 2-3 months, which would significantly raise conviction either direction. Additional context comes from broader crypto market conditions, with Bitcoin's trajectory and general regulatory momentum potentially affecting launch timing across the sector.

### Key factors

- Arc and Base token launch probabilities (50¢ and 3¢ respectively) suggest differentiated market views on competing platforms' launch readiness
- SAVE Act regulatory clarity (trading at 9¢ for passage) would likely reduce regulatory barriers and could accelerate token launches industry-wide if passed
- No announced token launch date or official timeline from Felix is currently public, making probability heavily dependent on project signals and management commentary
- Comparison to historical platform token launches (Base delayed, others accelerated) indicates execution risk and market timing considerations specific to individual projects
- Bitcoin price trajectory above $100k (42¢ probability) correlates with broader crypto sentiment that could influence launch timing and market receptivity for new tokens

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/tokenlaunch
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=tokenlaunch

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.