# Will Toll Brothers, Inc. report above 2350 Delivered Homes in Q2 2026

> Above 2600 leads at 76%, runner-up 45% across 6 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 43 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/tol
Updated: 2026-06-26T13:20:51.471Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-09-17

## Headline

- Leader: Above 2600 at 76%
- Runner-up: Above 2700 at 45%
- Outcomes: 6 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0
- Resolved: above 2350

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 2600 | 76¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-toll-brothers-inc-report-above-2600-deliverie-kalshi-kxtol-26augdeliv-2600 |
| Above 2700 | 45¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-toll-brothers-inc-report-above-2700-deliverie-kalshi-kxtol-26augdeliv-2700 |
| Above 2800 | 17¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-toll-brothers-inc-report-above-2800-deliverie-kalshi-kxtol-26augdeliv-2800 |
| Above 2900 | 7¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-toll-brothers-inc-report-above-2900-deliverie-kalshi-kxtol-26augdeliv-2900 |
| Above 3100 | 6¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-toll-brothers-inc-report-above-3100-deliverie-kalshi-kxtol-26augdeliv-3100 |
| Above 3000 | 3¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-toll-brothers-inc-report-above-3000-deliverie-kalshi-kxtol-26augdeliv-3000 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 2600 | Above 2700 | Above 2800 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | 73 | — | — |
| 2026-05-28 | 73 | 46 | — |
| 2026-06-08 | 77 | 45 | 16 |
| 2026-06-12 | 78 | — | — |
| 2026-06-13 | — | — | 14 |
| 2026-06-17 | — | 45 | — |
| 2026-06-18 | 76 | — | 17 |
| 2026-06-26 | 76 | — | 16 |

_19 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This market prices the likelihood that Toll Brothers will deliver more than 2,350 homes in the second quarter of 2026 at 87%, suggesting strong confidence in the company's delivery pace. The high probability reflects Toll Brothers' recent performance as a major homebuilder and relatively stable operational output. However, the spread across contracts—where above-2,550 homes trades at only 38%—indicates uncertainty about the upper end of delivery potential. The primary resolution driver is Toll Brothers' Q2 2026 earnings release, typically occurring in August 2026, which will report actual delivered units. Key factors influencing this outcome include current order backlogs, construction cycle timing, labor availability, supply chain constraints, and broader housing market demand. The large gap between the base threshold (2,350) and higher tiers suggests markets expect solid but not exceptional delivery performance.

### Key factors

- Toll Brothers' trailing twelve-month delivery pace and current backlog conversion rates
- Housing starts and mortgage rate environment through Q2 2026, which affect demand and construction timelines
- Labor availability and supply chain conditions for building materials during the quarter
- Actual reported delivered units when Q2 2026 earnings are released, typically in August 2026
- Comparison to Toll Brothers' historical quarterly delivery volumes and recent guidance

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/tol
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=tol

## License

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