# Will Toll Brothers Inc. report Above 9600 deliveries in fiscal 2026

> Above 10500 leads at 72%, runner-up 70% across 10 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 h ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/tola
Updated: 2026-09-21T11:20:59.743Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-03-09

## Headline

- Leader: Above 10500 at 72%
- Runner-up: Above 9800 at 70%
- Outcomes: 10 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (10 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (10)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 10500 | 72¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-toll-brothers-inc-report-above-10500-deliveri-kalshi-kxtola-26decdeliv-10500 |
| Above 9800 | 70¢ | −12pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-toll-brothers-inc-report-above-9800-deliverie-kalshi-kxtola-26decdeliv-9800 |
| Above 10400 | 51¢ | −35pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-toll-brothers-inc-report-above-10400-deliveri-kalshi-kxtola-26decdeliv-10400 |
| Above 10000 | 50¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-toll-brothers-inc-report-above-10000-deliveri-kalshi-kxtola-26decdeliv-10000 |
| Above 9600 | 40¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-toll-brothers-inc-report-above-9600-deliverie-kalshi-kxtola-26decdeliv-9600 |
| Above 10200 | 40¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-toll-brothers-inc-report-above-10200-deliveri-kalshi-kxtola-26decdeliv-10200 |
| Above 10300 | 40¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-toll-brothers-inc-report-above-10300-deliveri-kalshi-kxtola-26decdeliv-10300 |
| Above 9900 | 30¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-toll-brothers-inc-report-above-9900-deliverie-kalshi-kxtola-26decdeliv-9900 |
| Above 9700 | 20¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-toll-brothers-inc-report-above-9700-deliverie-kalshi-kxtola-26decdeliv-9700 |
| Above 10100 | 20¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-toll-brothers-inc-report-above-10100-deliveri-kalshi-kxtola-26decdeliv-10100 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 10500 | Above 9800 | Above 10400 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | 72 | — | 86 |
| 2026-08-24 | 72 | 94 | 85 |
| 2026-09-06 | 74 | — | 86 |
| 2026-09-10 | 73 | 82 | 85 |
| 2026-09-11 | 73 | — | 86 |
| 2026-09-17 | 71 | 82 | — |
| 2026-09-18 | 72 | 70 | — |
| 2026-09-19 | 72 | — | 51 |

_23 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-09-17 · Above 10100 −42pp 62→20¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-17 · Above 9700 −40pp 60→20¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-19 · Above 10400 −35pp 86→51¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-18 · Above 9900 −29pp 62→33¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-17 · Above 10300 −28pp 68→40¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

Markets are pricing a 95% likelihood that Toll Brothers will deliver more than 9,600 homes in fiscal year 2026. This reflects confidence in the homebuilder's production capacity and order backlog, though the distribution of higher-tier contracts (95% for 10,000+ units, declining to 77% for 10,400+) suggests uncertainty about the upper range. Delivery volume depends primarily on housing demand, supply chain stability, and the pace at which Toll Brothers converts its existing backlog into completed units. The key uncertainty is whether macroeconomic conditions—mortgage rates, consumer confidence, labor availability—remain favorable through fiscal 2026. Final fiscal year results will be reported in late 2026, resolving the question through Toll Brothers' official earnings disclosure and 10-K filing.

### Key factors

- Toll Brothers' current backlog position and contracted orders as of mid-2026 will largely determine feasible delivery ranges
- Interest rate and mortgage market conditions affect buyer willingness to close, directly influencing quarterly delivery rates
- Labor availability and supply chain disruptions historically create production constraints in homebuilding and will affect execution risk
- The contract price distribution shows material probability mass across thresholds (77% at 10,400 vs. 95% at 9,600), indicating uncertainty rather than consensus on the likely outcome
- Toll Brothers' historical delivery guidance versus actual results provides baseline expectations for management credibility on revised forecasts

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/tola
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=tola

## License

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