# Will Sam Tutty win Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Musical at the 79th Tony Awards

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 44% across 16 contracts — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/tonyawards
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:05:42.874Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Probability: 44% (liquidity-weighted across 16 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (16 contracts)
- 24h volume: $54K

## Bound contracts (16)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Schmigadoon! | 49¢ | ±0 | $7K | kalshi | /markets/will-schmigadoon-win-best-musical-at-the-79th-tony-kalshi-kxtonyawards-26bm-shm |
| Giant | 33¢ | −3pp | $6K | kalshi | /markets/will-giant-win-best-play-at-the-79th-tony-awards-g-kalshi-kxtonyawards-26bp-gia |
| Lear deBessonet | 10¢ | +3pp | $5K | kalshi | /markets/will-lear-debessonet-win-best-direction-of-a-music-kalshi-kxtonyawards-26bdoam-lea |
| Zhailon Levingston and Bill Rauch | 53¢ | +2pp | $5K | kalshi | /markets/will-zhailon-levingston-and-bill-rauch-win-best-di-kalshi-kxtonyawards-26bdoam-zha |
| Liberation | 64¢ | +12pp | $4K | kalshi | /markets/will-liberation-win-best-play-at-the-79th-tony-awa-kalshi-kxtonyawards-26bp-lib |
| Scott Pask | 4¢ | −3pp | $4K | kalshi | /markets/will-scott-pask-win-best-scenic-design-of-a-musica-kalshi-kxtonyawards-26bsdoam-sco |
| Michael Arden | 10¢ | −1pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-michael-arden-win-best-direction-of-a-musical-kalshi-kxtonyawards-26bdoam-mic |
| Jack Knowles | 63¢ | +10pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-jack-knowles-win-best-lighting-design-of-a-pl-kalshi-kxtonyawards-26bldoap-jac |
| Kai Harada | 34¢ | +5pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-kai-harada-win-best-sound-design-of-a-musical-kalshi-kxtonyawards-26bscdoam-kai |
| Tom Gibbons | 49¢ | +20pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-tom-gibbons-win-best-sound-design-of-a-play-a-kalshi-kxtonyawards-26bsodoap-tom |
| Arthur Miller's Death of a Salesman | 61¢ | +8pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-arthur-millers-death-of-a-salesman-win-best-r-kalshi-kxtonyawards-26broap-art |
| Jeff Mahshie | 66¢ | +6pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-jeff-mahshie-win-best-costume-design-of-a-pla-kalshi-kxtonyawards-26bcdoap-jef |
| Dane Laffrey | 77¢ | +1pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-dane-laffrey-win-best-scenic-design-of-a-musi-kalshi-kxtonyawards-26bsdoam-dan |
| Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York) | 50¢ | +8pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-two-strangers-carry-a-cake-across-new-york-wi-kalshi-kxtonyawards-26bos-two |
| Nathan Lane | 18¢ | +3pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-nathan-lane-win-best-performance-by-an-actor-kalshi-kxtonyawards-26bpbaa-nat |
| Qween Jean | 67¢ | +4pp | $246 | kalshi | /markets/will-qween-jean-win-best-costume-design-of-a-music-kalshi-kxtonyawards-26bcdoam-qwe |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-06 | 27 |
| 2026-05-07 | 40 |
| 2026-05-08 | 45 |
| 2026-05-09 | 77 |

_4 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-07 · Jeff Mahshie +48pp 11→59¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-07 · Jack Knowles +31pp 20→51¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-07 · Dane Laffrey +24pp 47→71¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-07 · Giant +22pp 21→43¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-07 · Zhailon Levingston and Bill Rauch +20pp 31→51¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects a 28% chance that Sam Tutty will win the Tony Award for Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Musical at the 79th Tony Awards, scheduled for June 2026. The prediction is driven by the competitive field of nominees and Tutty's positioning relative to other leading contenders in what is typically a closely contested category. The main factor affecting this probability is the strength of competing performances and any momentum from other Broadway awards ceremonies earlier in the season. The resolution of this market depends entirely on the June 2026 Tony Awards ceremony, where the award will be presented and a winner definitively announced. Markets tracking related categories suggest active Broadway voter engagement with multiple productions receiving support.

### Key factors

- Sam Tutty's nomination status and visibility compared to other finalists in the Best Actor in a Leading Role in a Musical category
- Historical voting patterns in this category, including whether voters favor established stars, ensemble-focused productions, or breakthrough performances
- Performance metrics from earlier award seasons (Drama Desk, Outer Critics Circle, etc.) that often correlate with Tony voting
- The overall Broadway season's critical reception and which productions have momentum heading into June 2026
- Turnout and composition of Tony voting membership, which can shift outcomes in competitive categories

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/tonyawards
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=tonyawards

## License

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