# Top 14: ASM Clermont Auvergne vs Perpignan

> ASM Clermont Auvergne vs Perpignan: ASM Clermont Auvergne leads at 65%, runner-up 14% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/top-14-asm-clermont-auvergne-vs-perpignan
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:44.755Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-16

## Headline

- Leader: ASM Clermont Auvergne vs Perpignan: ASM Clermont Auvergne at 65%
- Runner-up: ASM Clermont Auvergne vs Perpignan: Perpignan at 14%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $384

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASM Clermont Auvergne vs Perpignan: ASM Clermont Auvergne | 65¢ | −12pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/top-14-asm-clermont-auvergne-vs-perpignan-asm-cler-polymarket-0x6e04dadea06a5719188cbc66512c87b2d952d07871ece1fdad9bbfc2f9c2f9b7 |
| ASM Clermont Auvergne vs Perpignan: Perpignan | 14¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/top-14-asm-clermont-auvergne-vs-perpignan-perpigna-polymarket-0x5e4684fec48b5b184bc6c293ae58a3e4f936ac8d6e72fdd24f3e9260d83314c1 |
| ASM Clermont Auvergne vs Perpignan: Draw | 3¢ | +1pp | $384 | polymarket | /markets/top-14-asm-clermont-auvergne-vs-perpignan-draw-polymarket-0x8b0b9a6c0f46c0095857097fceef104cb070131c0996c3d32fb53df11c3ca6b9 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | ASM Clermont Auvergne vs Perpignan: ASM Clermont Auvergne | ASM Clermont Auvergne vs Perpignan: Perpignan | ASM Clermont Auvergne vs Perpignan: Draw |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-06 | 75 | 17 | 27 |
| 2026-05-07 | 78 | 16 | 23 |
| 2026-05-08 | 66 | 15 | 24 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-08 · ASM Clermont Auvergne vs Perpignan: ASM Clermont Auvergne −12pp 78→66¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · ASM Clermont Auvergne vs Perpignan: Draw −4pp 27→23¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · ASM Clermont Auvergne vs Perpignan: ASM Clermont Auvergne +3pp 75→78¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This represents the current market assessment that the ASM Clermont Auvergne versus Perpignan Top 14 match will end in a draw, with a 28% implied probability. The draw price reflects the relatively low historical frequency of ties in rugby union, where decisive outcomes are more common than goalless stalemates in other sports. Current pricing suggests traders view an ASM win as the marginal favorite, with Perpignan at 19%. The main drivers of this probability are each team's recent form, head-to-head history, injury status, and home-field advantage if applicable. The match itself will provide the definitive resolution, determining whether the draw outcome materializes or one team secures victory.

### Key factors

- Historical draw frequency in Top 14 matches typically ranges 5-12%, making 28% an elevated relative to baseline expectations
- ASM Clermont's recent performance record and current league position relative to Perpignan's standings
- Team composition, particularly availability of key players and recent injury reports affecting both sides
- Head-to-head matchup history between the two clubs in recent seasons
- Match venue and whether home-field advantage patterns have historically favored either team in draws

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

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- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=top-14-asm-clermont-auvergne-vs-perpignan

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