# Top Spotify artist in April

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 36% across 10 contracts — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/top-spotify-artist-april
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:41.531Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Probability: 36% (liquidity-weighted across 10 contracts)
- Cross-venue: Kalshi 37% / Polymarket 33% — 4pp spread
- 24h volume: $1K

## Bound contracts (10)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Swift | 16¢ | −6pp | $490 | kalshi | /markets/will-taylor-swift-be-the-1-most-streamed-artist-on-kalshi-kxtopartistusa-26-tay |
| Bad Bunny | 69¢ | ±0 | $315 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-the-top-spotify-artist-this-year-bad-b-kalshi-kxtopartist-26b-bad |
| Drake | 70¢ | +1pp | $261 | kalshi | /markets/will-drake-be-the-1-most-streamed-artist-on-the-20-kalshi-kxtopartistusa-26-dra |
| Drake | 31¢ | +2pp | $177 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-the-top-spotify-artist-this-year-drake-kalshi-kxtopartist-26b-dra |
| Taylor Swift | 4¢ | ±0 | $90 | polymarket | /markets/top-spotify-artist-2026-taylor-swift-polymarket-0x0afa82ff8cb4dcf8c7a248ccaf438597619d3a6a4e4463adb109e1a1034d6e10 |
| Bad Bunny | 11¢ | ±0 | $83 | kalshi | /markets/will-bad-bunny-be-the-1-most-streamed-artist-on-th-kalshi-kxtopartistusa-26-bad |
| Bad Bunny | 66¢ | +1pp | $26 | polymarket | /markets/top-spotify-artist-2026-bad-bunny-polymarket-0x938e6a0a011f9534ffd2d86c65dde3aeb7c66ad06cee29ead70b832179c3b6de |
| Drake | 20¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-drake-be-the-2-most-streamed-artist-on-the-20-kalshi-kxtopartistrunnerup-26-dra |
| Drake | 29¢ | +3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/top-spotify-artist-2026-drake-polymarket-0xa087422678cebf674c69d2c86a13b89d153951f067f753e0c2044eb991c0652f |
| Drake | 43¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-drake-be-the-3-most-streamed-artist-on-the-20-kalshi-kxtopartistthird-26-dra |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 34 |
| 2026-04-25 | 31 |
| 2026-05-02 | 35 |
| 2026-05-08 | 25 |

_28 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-02 · Taylor Swift +6pp 8→14¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · Taylor Swift +6pp 14→20¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-08 · Taylor Swift −6pp 20→14¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · Bad Bunny −4pp 18→14¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · Drake +4pp 12→16¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/top-spotify-artist-april
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=top-spotify-artist-april

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.