# How many spots on the Billboard Hot 100's top 10 will Olivia Rodrigo hold for the week of Jun 27, 2026

> Exactly 2 songs leads at 17%, runner-up 10% across 2 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 6 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/top10bbspots
Updated: 2026-07-13T04:20:51.175Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-07-25

## Headline

- Leader: Exactly 2 songs at 17%
- Runner-up: Exactly 1 song at 10%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $296

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exactly 2 songs | 17¢ | −13pp | $31 | kalshi | /markets/how-many-spots-on-the-billboard-hot-100s-top-10-wi-kalshi-kxtop10bbspots-26jul25-fut-2 |
| Exactly 1 song | 10¢ | −8pp | $265 | kalshi | /markets/how-many-spots-on-the-billboard-hot-100s-top-10-wi-kalshi-kxtop10bbspots-26jul25-fut-1 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Exactly 2 songs | Exactly 1 song |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | 27 | 30 |
| 2026-07-05 | 20 | 28 |
| 2026-07-06 | 21 | — |
| 2026-07-10 | 12 | 23 |

_9 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-07-10 · Exactly 2 songs −13pp 25→12¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-10 · Exactly 1 song −8pp 31→23¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-09 · Exactly 2 songs +4pp 21→25¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-09 · Exactly 1 song +3pp 28→31¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market estimates the likelihood that Olivia Rodrigo will hold exactly one spot on the Billboard Hot 100's top 10 for the week of June 27, 2026, with traders currently pricing this outcome at 87% probability. The high confidence reflects her sustained chart performance and strong streaming numbers, though the exact outcome depends on new release activity from both Rodrigo and competing artists in late June. The critical catalyst is the Billboard chart dated June 27, 2026, which will definitively show her top-10 positioning. Recent streaming trends, any surprise album announcements or singles drops, and competitive releases from other major artists in the final week of June could shift expectations significantly. The current dominance of the "exactly 1 song" contract suggests traders view scenarios of zero, two, three or more simultaneous top-10 entries as substantially less likely.

### Key factors

- Rodrigo's current streaming velocity and existing top-10 presence as of early June 2026 will establish baseline momentum into late June
- New single releases or album announcements from Rodrigo or major competitors between now and June 27 would directly alter chart positioning
- The definition of "exactly 1 song" excludes both zero top-10 entries and multiple simultaneous top-10 placements, making this outcome sensitive to concentrated vs. dispersed chart performance
- Historical chart behavior showing how long individual songs typically sustain top-10 status influences expected decay or growth
- Any major industry events, award shows, or viral moments affecting chart-driving metrics (streaming, radio spins, downloads) in late June

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/top10bbspots
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=top10bbspots

## License

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