# Will Mark Zuckerberg be one of the three wealthiest people in the world

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 29% across 9 contracts — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/top3wealth
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:43.216Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Probability: 29% (liquidity-weighted across 9 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (9 contracts)
- 24h volume: $7

## Bound contracts (9)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Page | 67¢ | −1pp | $7 | kalshi | /markets/will-larry-page-be-one-of-the-three-wealthiest-peo-kalshi-kxtop3wealth-26dec31-larrp |
| Elon Musk | 96¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-elon-musk-be-one-of-the-three-wealthiest-peop-kalshi-kxtop3wealth-26dec31-elon |
| Jeff Bezos | 30¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jeff-bezos-be-one-of-the-three-wealthiest-peo-kalshi-kxtop3wealth-26dec31-jeff |
| Mark Zuckerberg | 12¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-mark-zuckerberg-be-one-of-the-three-wealthies-kalshi-kxtop3wealth-26dec31-mark |
| Jensen Huang | 5¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jensen-huang-be-one-of-the-three-wealthiest-p-kalshi-kxtop3wealth-26dec31-jens |
| Larry Ellison | 7¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-larry-ellison-be-one-of-the-three-wealthiest-kalshi-kxtop3wealth-26dec31-larr |
| Warren Buffett | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-warren-buffett-be-one-of-the-three-wealthiest-kalshi-kxtop3wealth-26dec31-warr |
| Sergey Brin | 40¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-sergey-brin-be-one-of-the-three-wealthiest-pe-kalshi-kxtop3wealth-26dec31-serg |
| Steve Ballmer | 4¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-steve-ballmer-be-one-of-the-three-wealthiest-kalshi-kxtop3wealth-26dec31-stev |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 40 |
| 2026-04-25 | 37 |
| 2026-05-02 | 41 |
| 2026-05-08 | 7 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Jensen Huang −3pp 8→5¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability estimates a 37% chance that Mark Zuckerberg ranks among the world's three wealthiest individuals by the resolution date. Zuckerberg's wealth position depends primarily on Meta's stock performance and broader technology sector valuations, which have been volatile. His current ranking relative to other ultra-high-net-worth individuals—particularly Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos, and other tech leaders—fluctuates based on daily market movements and their respective companies' performance. The primary driver of change would be sustained shifts in Meta's market capitalization relative to competitors, major strategic company moves, or significant personal transactions. Real-time wealth rankings show constant movement, making this outcome sensitive to both company fundamentals and market sentiment. The resolution hinges on final wealth rankings at a specified date, making this dependent on factors beyond any single announcement.

### Key factors

- Meta's stock price relative to 2026 baseline and performance of companies owned by other ultra-wealthy individuals
- Total market capitalization changes in technology sector versus other industries holding billionaire wealth
- Major acquisitions, divestitures, or strategic changes affecting Zuckerberg's or competitors' net worth
- Regulatory or antitrust actions that could materially impact Meta's valuation or Zuckerberg's stake
- Personal wealth transactions by Zuckerberg or other top-ranked billionaires that alter their relative positions

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/top3wealth
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=top3wealth

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.