# Will KEHLANI be #1 on the Billboard 200 during the week of May 16, 2026

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 79% across 5 contracts — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/topalbum
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:40.515Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-11

## Headline

- Probability: 79% (liquidity-weighted across 5 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (5 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DANDELION | 7¢ | −11pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-dandelion-be-1-on-the-billboard-200-during-th-kalshi-kxtopalbum-26may16-dan |
| KEHLANI | 97¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-kehlani-be-1-on-the-billboard-200-during-the-kalshi-kxtopalbum-26may16-keh |
| Number Ones | 97¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-number-ones-be-1-on-the-billboard-200-during-kalshi-kxtopalbum-26may16-num |
| Songs About Us | 97¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-songs-about-us-be-1-on-the-billboard-200-duri-kalshi-kxtopalbum-26may16-son |
| YOUR FAVORITE TOY | 97¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-your-favorite-toy-be-1-on-the-billboard-200-d-kalshi-kxtopalbum-26may16-you |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-29 | 17 |
| 2026-04-30 | 17 |
| 2026-05-01 | 6 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This market estimates an 78% probability that Kehlani's album debuts at number one on the Billboard 200 chart during the week of May 16, 2026. The high probability reflects strong pre-release momentum and apparent market confidence in the album's commercial performance. Key drivers include Kehlani's existing fanbase, the album's promotional activity, and early sales/streaming data. The resolution depends on actual chart data released by Billboard, which typically publishes the week's rankings in early May. Competing releases during the same period and streaming service metrics will ultimately determine chart position. Current market pricing suggests traders assess favorable conditions, though the 22% risk probability reflects genuine uncertainty around final sales figures and how streaming counts will translate into chart position.

### Key factors

- Kehlani's prior chart performance and existing fan engagement relative to competing releases expected May 16
- Pre-release sales, pre-order data, and streaming activity from major platforms (Spotify, Apple Music, etc.) in the week leading to chart publication
- Chart methodology: how Billboard's weighting of streams, downloads, and physical sales affects final positioning versus competing albums
- Release date timing and potential delays or unexpected competition from other major artists during the May 9-16 tracking period
- Historical volatility in #1 debuts for albums by established R&B/pop artists in comparable market conditions

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/topalbum
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=topalbum

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.