# How many straight weeks will 'ICEMAN' be #1

> More than 2 weeks leads at 93%, runner-up 78% across 5 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 49 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/topalbumrecord
Updated: 2026-06-26T02:20:49.331Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-21

## Headline

- Leader: More than 2 weeks at 93%
- Runner-up: More than 1 week at 78%
- Outcomes: 5 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (5 contracts)
- 24h volume: $3K

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| More than 2 weeks | 93¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/how-many-straight-weeks-will-you-seem-pretty-sad-f-kalshi-kxtopalbumrecord-you-oli-2 |
| More than 1 week | 78¢ | — | $3K | kalshi | /markets/how-many-straight-weeks-will-petal-be-1-more-than-kalshi-kxtopalbumrecord-pet-ari-1 |
| More than 3 weeks | 45¢ | −5pp | $19 | kalshi | /markets/how-many-straight-weeks-will-you-seem-pretty-sad-f-kalshi-kxtopalbumrecord-you-oli-3 |
| More than 2 weeks | 32¢ | — | $34 | kalshi | /markets/how-many-straight-weeks-will-petal-be-1-more-than-kalshi-kxtopalbumrecord-pet-ari-2 |
| More than 3 weeks | 5¢ | — | $6 | kalshi | /markets/how-many-straight-weeks-will-petal-be-1-more-than-kalshi-kxtopalbumrecord-pet-ari-3 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | More than 2 weeks | More than 1 week | More than 3 weeks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-11 | 56 | — | 32 |
| 2026-06-12 | 65 | — | 37 |
| 2026-06-19 | 80 | — | 52 |
| 2026-06-24 | 88 | — | 45 |
| 2026-06-25 | 90 | 31 | — |

_15 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-19 · More than 2 weeks +13pp 67→80¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-22 · More than 2 weeks +7pp 81→88¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · More than 3 weeks −5pp 50→45¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-19 · More than 3 weeks +3pp 49→52¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market estimates an 83% probability that the song 'ICEMAN' will remain the #1 ranked track for a specific number of consecutive weeks. The current odds reflect expectations based on the track's recent chart performance and streaming momentum. The probability is driven primarily by how long 'ICEMAN' maintains its dominant chart position against competing releases and shifts in listener engagement. A key catalyst is the weekly chart update cycle, which determines whether 'ICEMAN' retains the top spot or loses ground to other songs. Market participants are essentially pricing in the likelihood that momentum persists through multiple consecutive weeks rather than being displaced quickly by newer releases or resurgent competitors.

### Key factors

- Current streaming volume and weekly listener engagement metrics compared to nearest competing tracks
- Release schedule and promotional intensity of competing songs expected during the timeframe in question
- Historical chart persistence patterns for similar-positioned songs in this artist's catalog and genre
- Weekly chart methodology and voting/streaming weighting that determines #1 rankings
- Performance trends over the past 2-4 weeks showing whether momentum is accelerating, stable, or declining

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/topalbumrecord
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=topalbumrecord

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.