# How many straight weeks will 'you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love' be #1

> More than 1 weeks leads at 84%, runner-up 60% across 6 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/topalbumrecordor
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:50:43.250Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-26

## Headline

- Leader: More than 1 weeks at 84%
- Runner-up: More than 2 weeks at 60%
- Outcomes: 6 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $68

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| More than 1 weeks | 84¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/how-many-straight-weeks-will-you-seem-pretty-sad-f-kalshi-kxtopalbumrecordor-yspsfagsil-1 |
| More than 2 weeks | 60¢ | ±0 | $68 | kalshi | /markets/how-many-straight-weeks-will-you-seem-pretty-sad-f-kalshi-kxtopalbumrecordor-yspsfagsil-2 |
| More than 3 weeks | 39¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/how-many-straight-weeks-will-you-seem-pretty-sad-f-kalshi-kxtopalbumrecordor-yspsfagsil-3 |
| More than 4 weeks | 26¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/how-many-straight-weeks-will-you-seem-pretty-sad-f-kalshi-kxtopalbumrecordor-yspsfagsil-4 |
| More than 5 weeks | 14¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/how-many-straight-weeks-will-you-seem-pretty-sad-f-kalshi-kxtopalbumrecordor-yspsfagsil-5 |
| More than 6 weeks | 7¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/how-many-straight-weeks-will-you-seem-pretty-sad-f-kalshi-kxtopalbumrecordor-yspsfagsil-6 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | More than 1 weeks | More than 2 weeks | More than 3 weeks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-14 | 55 | 58 | 40 |
| 2026-04-15 | — | 62 | — |
| 2026-04-25 | 84 | — | — |
| 2026-04-27 | 86 | — | 44 |
| 2026-04-28 | 82 | 60 | 41 |
| 2026-05-02 | 82 | — | — |
| 2026-05-09 | 84 | 60 | — |

_13 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This contract measures how many consecutive weeks Olivia Rodrigo's song 'you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love' will hold the #1 position on the Billboard Hot 100 chart. The 82% probability on the leading contract suggests traders expect a relatively sustained run at the top. The song's current chart momentum and streaming performance are primary drivers—tracks typically spend longer at #1 when they maintain strong initial demand across platforms. The main uncertainty centers on competition from new releases and whether listener engagement sustains beyond the initial weeks. The critical resolution point will be the weekly Billboard Hot 100 updates as new chart data releases each Tuesday, which will definitively establish whether the song maintains or loses its #1 ranking in consecutive weeks.

### Key factors

- Current streaming share compared to competing tracks in the same release window
- Release timing of other major label singles that could displace it from the chart
- Historical performance data for recent debut singles reaching #1 by the same artist
- Radio airplay adoption rates and whether they sustain alongside streaming performance
- Listener engagement metrics showing whether repeat-play behavior indicates staying power or declining interest

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/topalbumrecordor
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=topalbumrecordor

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.