# Will The Art of Loving be the #2 most streamed Album on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Albums Globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 11% across 7 contracts — refreshed 1 h ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/topalbumspotifyrunnerup
Updated: 2026-08-10T02:20:50.771Z
Category: entertainment
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Probability: 11% (liquidity-weighted across 7 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (7 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (7)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dandelion | 9¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-dandelion-be-the-2-most-streamed-album-on-the-kalshi-kxtopalbumspotifyrunnerup-26-dan |
| Short n’ Sweet | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-short-n-sweet-be-the-2-most-streamed-album-on-kalshi-kxtopalbumspotifyrunnerup-26-sho |
| You’ll Be Alright, Kid | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-youll-be-alright-kid-be-the-2-most-streamed-a-kalshi-kxtopalbumspotifyrunnerup-26-you |
| I’m The Problem | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-im-the-problem-be-the-2-most-streamed-album-o-kalshi-kxtopalbumspotifyrunnerup-26-itp |
| ARIRANG | 48¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-arirang-be-the-2-most-streamed-album-on-the-2-kalshi-kxtopalbumspotifyrunnerup-26-ari |
| The Art of Loving | 6¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-art-of-loving-be-the-2-most-streamed-albu-kalshi-kxtopalbumspotifyrunnerup-26-oli |
| The Last of the Bugs be the #2 most streamed Album on the  2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Albums Globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026?: The Great Divide: The Last of the Bugs | 4¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-great-divide-the-last-of-the-bugs-be-the-kalshi-kxtopalbumspotifyrunnerup-26-grea |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-13 | 6 |
| 2026-07-27 | 7 |
| 2026-08-04 | 20 |
| 2026-08-09 | 6 |

_14 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This contract asks whether "The Art of Loving" will rank as the second-most streamed album globally on Spotify's 2026 Wrapped chart, released in early December 2026. The 12% probability reflects skepticism about this album achieving that specific position among billions of streams. The main driver of this low probability is that reaching #2 globally requires extraordinary streaming volume—only one album can rank higher—and the broader music market includes releases from established artists across all genres and regions. The contract resolves when Spotify officially publishes its 2026 Wrapped rankings in December 2026, at which point the exact album rankings become a matter of public record. Until then, streaming performance remains uncertain and dependent on release timing, marketing, artist popularity, and listener engagement over the coming seven months.

### Key factors

- The album must accumulate more streams than all but one other album released or streamed in 2026, competing against releases from globally dominant artists
- Spotify Wrapped rankings reflect only streams counted within Spotify's 2026 calendar period and geographic weighting, which differs from real-time chart positions
- The album's release date, if scheduled late in 2026, would limit total accumulation time compared to albums with earlier releases
- Current artist streaming rankings on related contracts show Drake at 71¢ for #1 U.S. artist status, suggesting conditional probability varies significantly by chart type and region
- The #2 position is uniquely constrained—only one album can rank higher—making this a more specific outcome than general top-10 placement

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/topalbumspotifyrunnerup
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=topalbumspotifyrunnerup

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.