# Will The Life of a Showgirl be the #3 most streamed Album on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Albums Globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 9% across 8 contracts — refreshed 52 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/topalbumthird
Updated: 2026-06-08T10:20:07.182Z
Category: entertainment
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Probability: 9% (liquidity-weighted across 8 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (8 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (8)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Art of Loving | 10¢ | +9pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-art-of-loving-be-the-3-most-streamed-albu-kalshi-kxtopalbumthird-26-art |
| DeBÍ TiRAR MáS FOToS | 15¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-deb-tirar-ms-fotos-be-the-3-most-streamed-alb-kalshi-kxtopalbumthird-26-bad |
| DINASTÍA | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-dinasta-be-the-3-most-streamed-album-on-the-2-kalshi-kxtopalbumthird-26-din |
| GNX | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-gnx-be-the-3-most-streamed-album-on-the-2026-kalshi-kxtopalbumthird-26-gnx |
| Iceman | 11¢ | +7pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-iceman-be-the-3-most-streamed-album-on-the-20-kalshi-kxtopalbumthird-26-ice |
| I’m The Problem | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-im-the-problem-be-the-3-most-streamed-album-o-kalshi-kxtopalbumthird-26-mor |
| petal | 5¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-petal-be-the-3-most-streamed-album-on-the-202-kalshi-kxtopalbumthird-26-pet |
| you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love | 16¢ | +15pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-you-seem-pretty-sad-for-a-girl-so-in-love-be-kalshi-kxtopalbumthird-26-you |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 13 |
| 2026-05-26 | 2 |
| 2026-05-29 | 11 |

_14 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This contract resolves to "yes" if The Life of a Showgirl ranks exactly third on Spotify's 2026 Wrapped global albums chart when the year-end data releases in late 2026. The 8% probability reflects that reaching a top-3 position globally is a high bar—it requires sustained streaming volume across all 190+ countries competing against legacy hits and simultaneous major releases. The main driver of this low probability is that only three albums can occupy the top three spots, and historically, the chart is dominated by established artists and album cycles that peaked earlier in the year. The critical resolution event occurs when Spotify publishes its 2026 Wrapped rankings in early December 2026, which will definitively show the album's final position. Until then, streaming performance through November, new competitive releases, and overall platform trends will determine whether this remains an unlikely outcome or if the probability shifts based on real-time data indicators.

### Key factors

- The album must accumulate more total streams than all but two other albums globally through December 2026, competing against catalog entries and simultaneous new releases from established artists
- Current related markets show Drake artist-level contracts at 16% (global #2 artist) and 71% (US #1 artist), suggesting strong but not dominant streaming positioning
- No details are provided about The Life of a Showgirl's artist, release date, genre, or current streaming trajectory, which are critical determinants of chart placement probability
- Spotify Wrapped ranks are determined by aggregate streams across the full year, meaning early-year album performance cannot guarantee top-3 placement if streaming declines in later months
- The resolution date is fixed for early December 2026 when Spotify publishes its official rankings, providing a single definitive measurement point

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

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- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=topalbumthird

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