# Will Drake be the #2 most streamed Artist on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Artist Globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 12% across 9 contracts — refreshed 52 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/topartistrunnerup
Updated: 2026-06-08T10:20:10.177Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Probability: 12% (liquidity-weighted across 9 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (9 contracts)
- 24h volume: $92

## Bound contracts (9)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Swift | 23¢ | −1pp | $92 | kalshi | /markets/will-taylor-swift-be-the-2-most-streamed-artist-on-kalshi-kxtopartistrunnerup-26-tay |
| Bad Bunny | 16¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-bad-bunny-be-the-2-most-streamed-artist-on-th-kalshi-kxtopartistrunnerup-26-bad |
| Beyoncé | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-beyonc-be-the-2-most-streamed-artist-on-the-2-kalshi-kxtopartistrunnerup-26-bey |
| Bruno Mars | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-bruno-mars-be-the-2-most-streamed-artist-on-t-kalshi-kxtopartistrunnerup-26-brun |
| Chappell Roan | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-chappell-roan-be-the-2-most-streamed-artist-o-kalshi-kxtopartistrunnerup-26-cha |
| Drake | 45¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-drake-be-the-2-most-streamed-artist-on-the-20-kalshi-kxtopartistrunnerup-26-dra |
| Kendrick Lamar | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-kendrick-lamar-be-the-2-most-streamed-artist-kalshi-kxtopartistrunnerup-26-ken |
| Morgan Wallen | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-morgan-wallen-be-the-2-most-streamed-artist-o-kalshi-kxtopartistrunnerup-26-mor |
| The Weeknd | 3¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-weeknd-be-the-2-most-streamed-artist-on-t-kalshi-kxtopartistrunnerup-26-wee |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 20 |
| 2026-05-25 | 29 |
| 2026-06-01 | 35 |
| 2026-06-08 | 23 |

_18 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-01 · Taylor Swift −4pp 28→24¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects a roughly 1-in-9 chance that Drake finishes as the second-most streamed artist globally on Spotify's 2026 year-end Wrapped chart. The 11% price suggests market participants view Drake as unlikely to reach the #2 position, though more plausible than several competing artists. This outcome depends on Drake's streaming volume throughout 2026 relative to other major artists, particularly whether he releases new music and how audiences engage with it compared to competitors. The market shows stronger confidence in Drake reaching #1 in the U.S. specifically (71%) than achieving #2 globally (11%), indicating belief that global competition is steeper. Spotify will release the official 2026 Wrapped rankings in late October or early November 2026, definitively resolving this question. Until then, major music releases, viral moments, and streaming trends across the calendar year will shape the odds.

### Key factors

- Drake's streaming volume in 2026 will depend heavily on whether he releases new music and its commercial reception relative to 2025 performance
- Global streaming distribution differs from U.S.-only markets; competitors like Bad Bunny and The Weeknd have strong international audiences that could outpace Drake
- The #2 position requires Drake to exceed nearly all other artists except one globally; only one artist can occupy the second spot, making this inherently more restrictive than top-5 or top-10 placements
- Historical Wrapped rankings show streaming leaders rarely shift dramatically year-over-year, so 2025's top artists will likely remain competitive in 2026
- Spotify's Wrapped rankings are finalized in October-November 2026 based on cumulative streams through approximately September 30, 2026

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/topartistrunnerup
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=topartistrunnerup

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