# Will Morgan Wallen be the #2 most streamed Artist on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Artist U.S chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 20% across 4 contracts — refreshed 52 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/topartistrunnerupusa
Updated: 2026-06-08T10:20:08.324Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Probability: 20% (liquidity-weighted across 4 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bad Bunny | 27¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-bad-bunny-be-the-2-most-streamed-artist-on-th-kalshi-kxtopartistrunnerupusa-26-bad |
| Drake | 21¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-drake-be-the-2-most-streamed-artist-on-the-20-kalshi-kxtopartistrunnerupusa-26-dra |
| Morgan Wallen | 7¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-morgan-wallen-be-the-2-most-streamed-artist-o-kalshi-kxtopartistrunnerupusa-26-mor |
| Taylor Swift | 26¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-taylor-swift-be-the-2-most-streamed-artist-on-kalshi-kxtopartistrunnerupusa-26-tay |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-11 | 26 |
| 2026-05-25 | 18 |
| 2026-06-01 | 28 |
| 2026-06-05 | 26 |

_20 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This contract resolves based on Morgan Wallen's final streaming rank on Spotify's 2026 Wrapped year-end chart for U.S. artists, releasing in early November 2026. The 21% probability reflects uncertainty about whether Wallen will specifically finish in the #2 position among top-streamed U.S. artists this year. Key drivers include Wallen's streaming velocity relative to Drake, Taylor Swift, and other major artists throughout 2026, the release of new music that could accelerate or stall his trajectory, and competitive dynamics as other artists release projects. The outcome depends entirely on aggregate streaming data compiled by Spotify over January-October 2026, with no external influence possible once that period closes. The contract resolves when Spotify officially publishes the 2026 Wrapped data in early November.

### Key factors

- Morgan Wallen's current streaming position relative to Drake (priced at 71¢ for #1 U.S.) and Taylor Swift (19¢ for #1 U.S.) as of May 2026
- Whether Wallen releases new material during 2026 and its streaming performance compared to concurrent releases by Swift, Drake, and other competitors
- Historical seasonal streaming patterns and the impact of summer and fall 2026 release schedules on relative artist positioning
- Wallen's recent chart performance and whether his May-October 2026 monthly streams maintain, grow, or decline versus his year-to-date rate
- Spotify's methodology for calculating annual rankings and whether changes to how streams are weighted could affect final positioning

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

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- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/topartistrunnerupusa
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=topartistrunnerupusa

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