# Will Chappell Roan be the #3 most streamed Artist on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Artist Globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 14% across 6 contracts — refreshed 26 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/topartistthird
Updated: 2026-06-26T07:20:49.304Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Probability: 14% (liquidity-weighted across 6 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $23

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Wallen | 4¢ | +2pp | $23 | kalshi | /markets/will-morgan-wallen-be-the-3-most-streamed-artist-o-kalshi-kxtopartistthird-26-mor |
| Bad Bunny | 15¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-bad-bunny-be-the-3-most-streamed-artist-on-th-kalshi-kxtopartistthird-26-bad |
| Chappell Roan | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-chappell-roan-be-the-3-most-streamed-artist-o-kalshi-kxtopartistthird-26-cha |
| Drake | 43¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-drake-be-the-3-most-streamed-artist-on-the-20-kalshi-kxtopartistthird-26-dra |
| Taylor Swift | 16¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-taylor-swift-be-the-3-most-streamed-artist-on-kalshi-kxtopartistthird-26-tay |
| The Weeknd | 3¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-weeknd-be-the-3-most-streamed-artist-on-t-kalshi-kxtopartistthird-26-wee |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | 39 |
| 2026-06-10 | 11 |
| 2026-06-19 | 44 |
| 2026-06-25 | 24 |

_15 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This market asks whether Chappell Roan will rank as the third-most streamed artist globally on Spotify's 2026 year-end Wrapped chart when it releases in early December 2026. At 16% probability, the market suggests this outcome is unlikely but not negligible. Roan would need sustained streaming momentum through year-end to reach top-3 status globally, competing against established high-volume artists. The current probability reflects uncertainty about her trajectory following recent chart success, balanced against the difficulty of maintaining top-tier streaming positions across billions of global listeners. Resolution depends entirely on Spotify's final 2026 Wrapped rankings, released typically in late November or early December 2026. Her actual year-over-year streaming performance relative to competitors like Drake, Taylor Swift, and others through November will determine the outcome.

### Key factors

- Chappell Roan's cumulative streams through November 2026 compared to other major artists, especially those currently dominating global streaming platforms
- Whether she releases new music in 2026 and its commercial performance, as new releases typically drive significant streaming volume spikes
- The streaming volume generated by her existing catalog versus potential new competitors or declining streams from current top artists
- Her geographic streaming distribution—whether growth is concentrated in specific regions or represents true global reach needed for top-3 global ranking
- Spotify's algorithmic playlist placements and promotional support in 2026, which significantly influence streaming accumulation for all artists

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/topartistthird
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=topartistthird

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