# Will Bruno Mars be the #1 most streamed Artist on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Artist U.S chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 21% across 5 contracts — refreshed 7 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/topartistusa
Updated: 2026-06-08T09:20:07.251Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Probability: 21% (liquidity-weighted across 5 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (5 contracts)
- 24h volume: $1K

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bad Bunny | 9¢ | ±0 | $520 | kalshi | /markets/will-bad-bunny-be-the-1-most-streamed-artist-on-th-kalshi-kxtopartistusa-26-bad |
| Drake | 72¢ | +2pp | $430 | kalshi | /markets/will-drake-be-the-1-most-streamed-artist-on-the-20-kalshi-kxtopartistusa-26-dra |
| Taylor Swift | 13¢ | −1pp | $392 | kalshi | /markets/will-taylor-swift-be-the-1-most-streamed-artist-on-kalshi-kxtopartistusa-26-tay |
| Ella Langley | 4¢ | +1pp | $37 | kalshi | /markets/will-ella-langley-be-the-1-most-streamed-artist-on-kalshi-kxtopartistusa-26-ell |
| Bruno Mars | 7¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-bruno-mars-be-the-1-most-streamed-artist-on-t-kalshi-kxtopartistusa-26-brun |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 11 |
| 2026-05-25 | 24 |
| 2026-06-01 | 20 |
| 2026-06-08 | 31 |

_31 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-02 · Taylor Swift +3pp 14→17¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This prediction asks whether Bruno Mars will be the most-streamed artist in the United States on Spotify's 2026 Wrapped chart, which will be released in early December 2026. The current 26% probability reflects moderate skepticism about Bruno Mars holding the top spot over competitors like Drake (71% to be #1) and Taylor Swift (19% to be #1). The probability is driven by Bruno Mars' current streaming momentum—he had a 7-cent contract for daily chart performance in May 2026—but faces stiff competition from established high-volume streamers. The outcome will ultimately depend on streaming activity across the full year 2026, with the Spotify Wrapped release in December serving as the resolution event. Between now and then, new music releases, touring activity, and overall listener engagement from all competing artists will determine final rankings.

### Key factors

- Bruno Mars' average monthly streams throughout 2026 relative to Drake, Taylor Swift, and other major artists competing for the #1 position
- Release of new Bruno Mars music or major touring activity in 2026 that could drive incremental streaming volume
- Drake's commanding 71% probability to finish #1, suggesting market participants see him as the primary frontrunner in the U.S. market
- Streaming behavior shifts in the second half of 2026, as Wrapped rankings reflect full-year cumulative data released in early December
- Historical volatility in annual Wrapped rankings, which can shift significantly based on late-year album releases or unexpected chart movements

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/topartistusa
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=topartistusa

## License

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